Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/03

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Over 56.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

Philadelphia early in the season was an ATM machine for going over the first quarter totals. That slowed a bit as key absences piled up throughout the year, but they’re still 22nd in first quarter points allowed including 24th at home. Add in that they’re 5th in first quarter scoring themselves and that’s how so many of their first quarters have flown over the total.

So this is a very low number for a Sixers game considering they’re mostly back to full strength. As they’ve gotten key players back over the past 4 games, their first quarters have seen 64, 61, 72, and 64 points, so Philly definitely seems back to their old ways. With the Wolves coming in on a back-to-back with travel, and having a much better record to the over in road games, I think this one clears the early total easily.

NBA (1 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Charlotte Hornets First Half Over 114.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports IN

What a ridiculous number for books to post, and what an embarrassing trend this has become for them. The full-game total is 236 points and the spread is 15.5, there is no threat of overtime in this game, so why is the first half total less than half of the full number? I can’t believe I keep seeing this, particularly in Hornets games and Pacers games, since the way both teams play is very predictable.

The Pacers are going to try early and tank late, while the Hornets are going to run it up early and coast late. That’s the perfect recipe for a lot of early points, and exactly how things slow down later in the game. I thought books actually got it right with Charlotte’s game last night, not that it mattered, but then they turn around and clown themselves with a number like this today. The Hornets being on no rest should help early scoring, and I think the first half flies over this total.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Brooklyn Nets Team Total Under 103.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on YES

Michael Porter Jr last played for the Nets on March 10th, which is probably the last time he’ll suit up for this tanking squad. From March 10th to today, Brooklyn has scored 100.1 PPG and gone 9-3 under this total, being held below triple digits 8 times. I’m not sure this was an NBA offense with Porter, but it certainly isn’t without him, and the laundry list of other injuries isn’t helping either. Included in that stretch is a game where Atlanta held them to 97 points, and this surging Hawks team that’s defending at a high level should shut them down again tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Houston Astros/Athletics Over 10 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

The first game of the year at Sutter Health Park is probably the best time to jump on the over. Totals are going to be inflated at this Triple-A park for most of the season, especially once it gets warmer there. For now it’s warm enough, and I think the offenses here can stand out. Particularly Houston’s which has been on fire to start the season, scoring 43 runs in their past 5 games and mashing some excellent Boston pitching this week.

Putting the Astros in a small park against a questionable pitching staff should result in a lot more runs, but don’t sleep on the A’s here either. This is an Athletics lineup that hasn’t quite found its stride yet, but returning home to their hitter-friendly park to face a weak starter in Cristian Javier might jumpstart them. Mostly though I’m looking to buy low on the total here, as I suspect books learned their lesson from last season and we’ll see much higher totals in Sacramento come summer.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-10 (+2.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.