Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/03

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Brooklyn Nets Team Total Over 101 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

Let’s be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wolves went out and lost this game, and neither would you. After a double-overtime win against the rival Nuggets where they went in shorthanded, the Wolves now have to travel across the country to face a team nobody takes seriously. That’s been the Achilles heel for Minnesota, not taking the league’s worst teams seriously, and it has bitten them plenty of times.

I’m not calling for the upset necessarily, but the two most likely ways this game unfolds are a blowout by Minnesota, or a tight one down to the wire. Both provide reasonable paths for Brooklyn to reach a total they’ve blown past in consecutive games, and the Wolves have only held three opponents in their past 23 games below this number, so look for the Nets to have at least some success tonight.

CBC Tournament (0.5 Unit) USC +5.5 vs Villanova (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on FS1

USC was a smart-money pick to win the inaugural College Basketball Crown so I’m surprised to see them catching so many points here. The Trojans absolutely crushed Tulane on Tuesday despite a terrible game from Desmond Claude and a quiet night from Saint Thomas, so this team is a long way from their potential.

The competition gets a lot tougher with Villanova and their elite three-point shooting, but USC has had a good perimeter defense all season and should be able to limit that somewhat. I think USC’s athleticism is going to give Nova trouble, and I question the organization and scheme for the Wildcats under an interim coach. With metrics sites making this a one-possession game across the board, I’ll definitely take all these points.

Degenerates

MLB Houston Astros/Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:10 PM CT on MN Twins Network

Major League Baseball is so dumb, just start the season later, or don’t schedule games in Minnesota when there’s snow on the ground. The home opener promo should be that the first 500 fans with frostbite today get a free amputation. It’s seriously too cold for baseball, and that means it’s too cold to swing a bat, and too cold for the ball to jump at Target Field. And with two strong starting pitchers in Hunter Brown and Joe Ryan, I think these lineups that have shown a lot of struggles the past week will stay quiet for the first five innings.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-14 (+4.0 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.