Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/02

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Charlotte Hornets First Half Over 114.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

The Hornets are one of the league's best under teams, with the second-best under record at home, and 12 of their past 16 games overall have gone under the total. But if you look closely, there’s money to be made on overs with their games, specifically in the first half. That’s why this first half number is split smartly by the books with more than 50% of the full-game total on the first half.

But I don’t think it goes far enough, as Charlotte’s past 7 home games have followed a familiar pattern: average 118.7 first half points, then slow down in the second half to usually cash the under. Even the first meeting with Phoenix did the same thing, going for 118 points in the first half and 92 after halftime which cashed the under. The Suns are on their third game in four nights here, so should be susceptible to Charlotte’s up-tempo approach in first halves, which I think sends this early total over before slowing down late.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Golden State Warriors Over 227.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-BA

If not for Utah and their shameless tanking, the Warriors would be the best over team in home games, which is notable because they actually try every night. I think this is a great spot for another over ticket to come home, with Golden State on a back-to-back after getting dominated by the Spurs last night. The Warriors are also a very profitable over team on no rest and when they are at a rest disadvantage, which is the case with a fresh Cavs team coming to town.

Cleveland should be able to run it up on a tired defense since they prefer to play in transition lately, so I don’t see the Warriors being able to stop that, especially with how shorthanded they are. But regardless of who takes the floor, Golden State will be firing away from three, and Cleveland is 26th in the NBA for three-point percentage defense. So there’s a path to plenty of points from both teams here, and that should get us to this total that’s relatively low for the situation.

NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) Tulsa/New Mexico Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

This game should be up-tempo, and if three’s are falling for both teams, it has the potential to fly over this total. Both Tulsa and New Mexico play at fast paces, particularly the Lobos who are top-40 in offensive pace and prefer to get out in transition. I don’t think Tulsa has what it takes to slow that down, not the way they’ve been playing in the back half of the season.

The Golden Hurricane have really struggled defensively in March, but this team can compensate by shooting the lights out. They’re 5th nationally in three-point percentage and live outside the arc, which they’ll need tonight. The UNM defense has good three-point defense numbers on the season, but haven’t done well against teams that are so dependent on the three-ball. While this is a neutral court with unfamiliar sightlines and semifinal stakes, I just see too much pace and quality offensive potential for it not to go over the total.

College Basketball Crown (0.5 Unit) West Virginia +1.5 vs Stanford (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FS1

This is strictly a fade of the ACC that has to step out and play Big12 competition tonight. The conference has been clowning itself all March, with their two NIT representatives losing home games in the second round to mid-major opponents, and a terrible record in the big dance capped off by Duke’s epic collapse. So why would the College Basketball Crown be any different for a conference that has been fairly weak all season? Stanford is definitely part of the problem, having not been the same since losing Chisom Okpara for the season. This team is not equipped offensively to handle a Ross Hodge defense and grind-it-out scheme, so give me the Mountaineers and their Big12 pedigree in this game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-10 (+3.63 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.