Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/02

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers -3 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

This is a really tough spot for the Knicks to be in. They just played last night, and now have to travel to face a team they don’t match up well with, and might be minus Karl-Anthony Towns on top of it all. KAT is a game-time decision tonight, but even with him in the lineup I don’t like the chances for the Knicks to compete out of the gates here. I’ve said it plenty of times before this season: the Knicks don’t do well against upper echelon teams, particularly in the first quarter of games.

Now they have to face the league’s best first quarter team in a situational spot that screams advantage Cleveland. On no rest, the Knicks are the worst ATS team in the league, while the Cavs are the best ATS team when they have a rest advantage. The Cavs have covered this number in the first quarter of both meetings this season, and those had KAT and Jalen Brunson healthy, so this should be an easy cover tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/Denver Nuggets First Quarter Over 56.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

Give some credit to the Nuggets for showing defensive effort last night against the Wolves. That was a game with far different emotional stakes than this one, so don’t count on the same kind of defense here, especially not after two overtimes last night. The Nuggets aren’t the only ones who will have tired legs on defense, as the Spurs just played last night and had to travel to elevation.

The Nuggets are one of the better teams in the league at hitting overs on no rest, and hopefully will get one or both of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter back tonight. I’m not sure it will matter though given the situation and lack of defensive effort I see coming here, so look for another high-scoring first quarter in Denver tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Detroit Pistons @ OKC Thunder -13 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

What OKC is doing to teams right now is getting a little ridiculous. Not only have they won 16 of their past 17 games, but they’ve also covered 15 of those 17 so books can’t even adjust to keep up with this ATS freight train. What’s also incredibly impressive is that the Thunder have only lost once to an Eastern Conference opponent this season, and an opportunity to extend that streak on national TV should result in another blowout.

The Pistons come in shorthanded as they deal with suspensions from Sunday’s brawl and injuries to Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris. So even though this is a big number to lay in the NBA against a team with a winning record, I’m rolling with the Thunder to keep breaking the power rating books have on them.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Detroit Pistons/OKC Thunder Over 231 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Another fun fact about that 17-game stretch I mentioned above is that the Thunder are averaging 126.5 points per game during it. Isolate that to the 9 home games, subtract the game where they rested all their starters, and it becomes 133.4 points per game. That’s just ridiculous levels of scoring, and I don’t think the Pistons will be able to slow it down. Blowout conditions here should drag this game over the total if OKC is going to keep scoring like that.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-13 (+5.95 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Confidence

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.