Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 04/01

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Utah Jazz First Half Over 121.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ

This is yet another case of a misaligned first half total, and in one of my favorite places to attack them. Utah home games are an overs gold mine that keeps on giving, with the Jazz crushing totals at home by 10.5 points on average. It also doesn’t hurt the case here that Denver is now leading the league for over record on the road.

But when you dig into the numbers on Utah that make their home games so explosive, you find that they’re scoring almost 2 points more before halftime and allowing a full point more as well. It’s because they typically try harder early to put a good face on their tanking efforts, so it makes sense to go with first half totals as a result. Denver’s elite offense will have no trouble carving them up early on, just as they have in the two meetings over the past month that saw 133 and 124 points before halftime, and tonight should be no different.

College Basketball Crown (0.5 Unit) Minnesota/Baylor First Half Under 69.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on FS1

The Gophers have been one of the better under teams in the country this season, and I don’t think any of that changes for this event. They’re a tough defense to figure out, evidenced by them allowing the 5th-fewest first half points per game in the country. That defensive effort should be on display here, as this is not just some exhibition event but a chance to earn the program a lot of NIL dollars.

I think the defense comes to play for both teams because of that incentive, and Baylor can defend with the best of them too, especially limiting opponent three-point production. The Gophers want to hoist a ton of three’s so they might run into trouble there in this neutral arena with unfamiliar sightlines. Minnesota will also drag the pace to a crawl, as they’re 361st in adjusted tempo this season and great at forcing opponents into long possessions. I can’t quite understand why this total is on the way up, but I see plenty of reasons for at least a slower start tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins/KC Royals First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-125; Odds via BetMGM): 6:40 PM CT on MLB.TV

Totals at Kauffman Stadium are going to be inflated this season because of changes to the field dimensions, making it easier to hit home runs. But when you have two excellent starting pitchers going against each other, with two questionable offenses trying to hit them, I think that neutralizes the stadium effect quite a bit. And neither team has been in very high-scoring games so far this season, with them combining to go 7-1 under this number in their collective first-fives.

With Joe Ryan going for the Twins, you’re getting a starter who can really hold down this Royals lineup that’s batting just .191 with a .582 OPS cumulatively against him. Even the scariest KC bats haven’t had success against Ryan, who was brilliant in his opening day start against a much better Baltimore lineup. And this light-hitting Twins lineup should struggle against Noah Cameron, who probably has the best stuff in the Royals rotation, and held Minnesota to 1 total run in 12 innings of work against them last season. That makes me pretty confident we’ll see another quiet start for these teams tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 20-11 (+3.78 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.