Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/01

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 @ Denver Nuggets (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Over the past couple of months, the Wolves have ranked in the top-5 of just about every deeper metric there is. It’s very difficult to reconcile that metrics profile with home losses to the Wizards, Pelicans, shorthanded Bucks, and shorthanded Pacers though. So maybe Nuggets coach Michael Malone is right in saying Minnesota truly gets up for playing Denver, because going 3-0 against them with a plus-17.3 average margin of victory is very impressive. With four of Denver’s starting five listed as gametime decisions for tonight, a fired-up Wolves squad should be able to find some advantages and continue playing well against the Nuggets, so I’ll take the points here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic -0.5 First Quarter @ San Antonio Spurs (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

Once again I’m going after the Spurs in the first quarter, this time at a very reasonable price. San Antonio is finally cratering, with their injury and depth issues wreaking havoc. Those should show up again tonight as the Spurs are incredibly thin and undersized in the frontcourt, so the size of the Magic will give them a big advantage tonight.

Orlando is going to have to win this game and this quarter on the strength of their defense since they have scoring issues, but I think they’re a good matchup against a Spurs team that just wants to run and hoist three’s. The Magic should be highly motivated out of the gates tonight after a tough loss last night, and have been good at beating up on bad teams so I see them getting in front early tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Chicago Bulls Over 236.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBCS-Chicago

After the Bulls got run up and down the court during last night’s beating in OKC, this should be a great spot to come back with another over for them. The Raptors have been waiting for Chicago while the Bulls are on no rest, a convergence of situational spots that has led to a lot of points this season. The Bulls have a good record to the over on no rest, and when they’re at a rest disadvantage they have the best over record in the league with the highest plus/minus to the total.

Toronto is also a solid 10-6 to the over when they have a rest advantage over the other team, so trends-wise this is a great spot to target the over. I think the matchup also screams points, as the Bulls have scored at least 122 points in all three meetings with the Raptors this season. That level of offensive output from the Bulls plus their defensive legs being wobbly after last night should send this well over the total.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Kansas City Royals Team Total Over 4.5 (+115; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Fanduel Sports KC

Let’s start to accept that the Brewers aren’t very good, especially in the pitching department. That’s a big departure from past Milwaukee teams so the market really hasn’t caught up yet, giving us numbers and prices like this. Giving up 20 runs to New York when they club a bunch of home runs with their torpedo bats can be explained as an outlier event.

But following it up with another 12 runs allowed to the Yankees and then 11 to Kansas City is troubling to say the least. The Brew Crew are going with a bullpen game today, and their relievers have been a big part of the pitching problem, so look for the Royals to keep waking up and get over this team total.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers/Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

A game in Seattle went well over the total last night, but don’t get used to it. Things should revert back to normal in a hurry after 15 runs last night in a game that featured much weaker starting pitching than we’ll see tonight. That’s especially the case for the Mariners who will send ace Logan Gilbert to the mound for his second start of the season.

Gilbert is elite, especially at home, and only gave up one run in his opening day start. The Mariners bats should also go back to their usual anemic selves tonight against Casey Mize who is an underrated starter. This is simply a matchup of strong starting pitching against weak offenses, and mean reversion will show up in a big way after last night to keep the first 5 innings quiet.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-13 (+5.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Confidence

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.