Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/31

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Orlando Magic Over 224.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports FL

This total seems to be built off of these teams’ previous meeting, a game that only got to 223 points with the help of double overtime. I bet the Magic wish they could go back to that version of themselves, when they could actually defend someone, and it wasn’t long after that their games started erupting. Orlando has been one of the better over teams in the league since then, thanks to the defense falling off a cliff and allowing 124.0 PPG just in the past 10 games.

They’ll face a more accurate version of the Suns here as well, since Phoenix was missing just about everyone for that previous meeting. The Suns offense has really kicked into high gear recently as they torch some bad defenses on their schedule, and that’s just what you have to consider Orlando to be at this point. With the Magic defense being the main factor in this game, it makes a total like this far too low and I’m liking the over.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers @ LA Lakers -2 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on Spectrum Sports Net

I’d recommend getting in on the Lakers as soon as possible, since this number might not be around for long. Both teams are on no rest here, but that doesn’t put them on a level playing field. Certainly not from an ATS standpoint, as the Lakers are 7-5 ATS on a back-to-back while Cleveland is just 4-8 which ranks 3rd-worst in the league.

And the Cavs didn’t rest anyone in Utah last night, while Luka Doncic served his suspension last night against the lowly Wizards. So it’s possible Cleveland rests some stars unexpectedly tonight, while the Lakers will certainly be at full strength because LeBron is not resting against his original team. That puts the Lakers in a good spot to continue this run they’ve had, especially against quality teams which was their weakness for so long. LA has won 6 of their past 7 games against teams with a record above .600, and I think their advantages tonight get them another.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Hunter Brown Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on NESN

Brown went off in the season opener for 9 K’s, and while that came against an Angels team that should be highly strikeout-prone this season, I think it’s a sign of what’s to come. Brown is an elite pitcher with nasty stuff, and ranked 8th in all of baseball for strikeouts last season.

So I think he can replicate his season debut to some extent here against a Boston team that should also be a swing-and-miss lineup this year. The Red Sox have some history against Brown and it’s not great for them, as he’s logged a 29.4% K-rate in his matchups with their roster, so with a decently lengthy start tonight he’ll clear this number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-11 (+3.08 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.