Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/31

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) LA Clippers Team Total Over 106.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

This depends entirely on whether Kawhi Leonard plays for LA tonight, so keep a close eye on the injury report leading up to tip-off. Leonard is currently questionable, because of course he is, and missed their game yesterday but has been going off when he’s in the lineup, averaging 25.6 PPG in March. That has helped LA really pick up the scoring, as they’ve averaged 118.2 PPG in the March games where Kawhi has been available.

Leonard’s presence should give the needed boost to get over this team total against a good Magic defense, one that held LA to 104 points in the first meeting back in November. I’ll give you one guess on who didn’t play for LA in that game, so if he does, the Clips will find their way over this number.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/Memphis Grizzlies Over 236.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

I talked about the Celtics and their “road dog” bit they’ve been doing as a team, which helped them step on the hapless Spurs on Saturday night. You can’t argue with results, and Boston is beating up on opponents lately, so a continuation of that tonight should result in a lot of points. The Celtics are out for revenge here after Memphis beat them in TD Garden back in December, so don’t expect Boston to take their foot off the gas.

That will be bad news for a Memphis team that has much deeper issues than Taylor Jenkins, particularly on the defensive end. But the Grizzlies can still score on anyone and are expected to have Ja Morant back in the lineup tonight, so they’ll be the best offense Boston has seen on this current road trip. The Grizzlies driving a fast tempo while Boston launches a ton of three’s is a great recipe for an over in this game.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics First Quarter Team Total Over 31 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

This is a bad situation for the Memphis defense to find themselves in. They’re 28th in the league for first quarter points allowed at home, and welcome the league’s highest-scoring first quarter team in road games. The Celtics have been roaring out of the gates on this western road trip, averaging 35.4 first quarter points, and should fly over this number as they look to keep making statements.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bulls/OKC Thunder Over 238.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on NBCS-Chicago

The Thunder have been about as explosive as it gets offensively in their own building, averaging 129.3 PPG over their past 15 home games. Scoring like that would suggest you’d want to lay the points with OKC, which has been a highly profitable strategy lately too, but it’s a big number and you have to account for how well the Bulls are playing. Chicago has been scoring like crazy themselves, averaging 128.2 PPG the past 5 games, and keeping themselves in games as well instead of getting run out like we saw earlier in the season. I think all of those factors significantly raise the scoring floor for this game, and don’t see defense being the story tonight so I’ll take the over here.

CBC Tournament (0.5 Unit) Washington St/Georgetown Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on FS1

It’s tough to know what kind of approach teams will take to this inaugural College Basketball Crown tournament. I guess we’ll find out something from the three games that play before this one, but since they stole a lot of teams and attention away from the NIT, maybe these early games will be reminiscent of NIT early-round games. That would mean a ton of points, and this is the best matchup to expect a shootout.

Both teams want to play fast, especially Washington State who’s 33rd in adjusted tempo. The Cougars are also quietly elite offensively, with a top-10 effective field goal rate and two-point percentage, so they can help drive scoring here. Georgetown has gotten into some wild games this season against up-tempo teams, especially down the stretch as their defense started to struggle. The Hoyas have an excellent interior offense as well and should be able to exploit a weak Wazzu defense on the way to a ton of points tonight.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Chicago Cubs @ Athletics ML (+110; Odds via Caesars): 9:05 PM CT on Marquee

The technically homeless Athletics play their first game at the minor league field in Sacramento here, and I’m backing them for a sneaky victory. The A’s showed in Seattle this weekend that their pitching is significantly upgraded, and might actually have the advantage here against Ben Brown and a Chicago bullpen that was worked hard in Arizona. The Cubs have the big names and an overall talent advantage, but something is telling me that the Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas/whatever Athletics are a different team this year and will prove it tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Braves @ LA Dodgers -1.5 (+110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SoCal

Apparently there’s this money hack where you just bet on the Dodgers every night and you’ll be able to retire by October. So far, so good on that front as LA is 5-0 to start the season and 4-1 on the run line, which I think continues tonight. The Braves come to LA in a situational spot where you always want to fade the team in their position, as they lost on Sunday Night Baseball and then had to travel.

It doesn’t help Atlanta that they have to face Tyler Glasnow who has a career .177 average and .507 OPS allowed against their roster, and they’re trying to counter with what appears to be a bullpen game. It won’t be long before the only way to get plus money backing the Dodgers is on the alternate run lines, so I’m jumping in on the standard one at this price while I can.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-9 (+4.8 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Confidence

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.