Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/30

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Detroit Pistons/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 225.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

Timberwolves games lately have been what I can only describe as accidentally hitting overs. Whether it’s from taking ugly losses to bad teams that they let hang around, or blowing them out, points have been coming in bunches but not due to any schematic or stats-based advantages. It’s turned the Wolves into one of the better home over teams in the league at 23-15, and I think it continues here, but again more thanks to luck on the injury front.

Cade Cunningham is set to miss this game, and the Pistons in his absence become more of a perimeter-oriented team that plays worse defense. But give them credit for scoring like crazy while he’s been out, averaging 130.3 PPG these past 3 outings. The Wolves see their three-point defense actually get worse at Target Center so Detroit should be able to keep that going to some extent, while the Wolves should score at will against a struggling defense. That has me on the same side as smart money that has been driving this total up despite Detroit’s star sitting again tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors -3.5 First Quarter @ San Antonio Spurs (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-BA

I’m going right back to the well of this Spurs team early in the game after they dug themselves a 9-point hole in the first quarter last night. They only ended up losing to Boston by 10, so early struggles is where you want to attack San Antonio, and the Warriors should be able to exploit that here. While not nearly the first quarter team Boston is, the Warriors are healthy with Steph Curry back in the lineup, and are desperately trying to climb out of the play-in. The shorthanded and tired Spurs are no match for Golden State on paper, and I think that shows up right away in tonight’s game.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+140; Odds via Fanduel)

Tennessee vs Houston (-155): 1:20 PM CT on CBS

Michigan St vs Auburn (-210): 4:05 PM CT on CBS

I’m sorry, but the one seeds are just too good. I’m kicking myself for not taking the juicy return in the neighborhood of 12 to 1 for all of the one seeds to make the Final Four, or doing a roll-over moneyline parlay on every day the one seeds played. So I just have to do it here, even though I think this is the stiffest test for both of the top seeds in these games. I’m sure now that I’m on the chalk bandwagon things will flip, that’s just my luck, but the way this tournament has unfolded can’t be ignored so I’ll try to recoup some of that woulda-coulda-shoulda 12 to 1 profit here.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Oakland A’s/Seattle Mariners First 5 innings Under 4 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 3:10 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

These two anemic offenses, going against two elite starting pitchers, should create another very low-scoring start. This fourth and final game of the series should look exactly like the first three, as of the 19 runs that they’ve combined for, only 5 of them have come in the first five innings. And now we have a matchup of the starting pitchers with arguably the nastiest stuff from each club.

Bryan Woo from Seattle is an excellent strikeout pitcher who has career numbers of a .167 average and .408 OPS allowed against the Athletics roster. Meanwhile, JP Sears has been just as tough on a Mariners lineup that still can’t push a run across to save their lives, posting a career .191 average and .550 OPS allowed to their bats. Consistently cold Seattle temps and the breeze blowing in at T-Mobile Park also help keep runs away, and this game should a pitcher’s duel to start off.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 18-12 (+2.1 Units) – Recommend: Tail

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.