Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/29

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat/Indiana Pacers Over 245.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

This total is monstrously high, but it keeps getting bet upwards because we know full well what these teams are. For Indiana it’s obvious, as the Pacers want to lose every game they can and will let the opposing offense have an extremely easy day at the office. That’s how they’ve managed to go 14-5 to the over since the All-Star break, as allowing 126.6 PPG in that stretch creates a high floor for reaching totals.

Miami will have no trouble scoring at will against Indiana here, which was never really the concern. What you need is for the Pacers to contribute meaningfully, and I think they will since we know this Miami defense has completely collapsed as well. The Heat are allowing 130.3 PPG during this 1-6 rough patch they’re in, and Indiana is doing the tanking thing right by actually trying on offense. That makes a game like this with two up-tempo teams extremely volatile, and I think it erupts for a ton of points.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers First Half Team Total Over 65.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on MNMT

This should be a highly motivated spot for the Blazers, and I think they take out some frustrations on the lowly Wizards tonight. It’s a revenge game for Portland, who went to DC and lost to this awful Wizards squad two months ago, so you’d have to think they’ll jump on a bad opponent early. The Blazers will also want to make up for an ugly performance on Friday night in losing at home to the Mavericks.

When tanking teams come to Portland, the Blazers have been running them out early, hanging 69 on Brooklyn and 71 on Milwaukee before halftime in the past week. Washington can’t and won’t stop anything, allowing the most first half points in the league and a ton to competent offenses lately, so this total won’t be tough to reach if Portland makes the effort.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Denver Nuggets Over 238.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on NBC

The Nuggets getting Aaron Gordon back hasn’t had the impact on their defense that was expected, as Denver keeps giving up big numbers on a nightly basis. Even this 5-game winning streak has seen them give up a lot of points to some below-average offensive teams, but the Denver offense just keeps on chugging along. That makes for a great over team, which they are as the league-leader in record to the over this season.

Right behind them for second place is Golden State, and even though the Warriors are a better over team at home, they’re still the kind of team that can create another high-scoring affair here. Golden State is never going to be afraid of firing from deep, and if the league-leading team in three-point attempts is connecting, this game can fly over. Both defenses are having trouble though, and Denver has the potential to turn this into a blowout over, so I see a lot of paths to points tonight.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Tennessee Team Total Under 69.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:15 PM CT on CBS

Don’t look too closely at Tennessee’s road to the Elite 8 this year. First up was a Miami-OH team that saw defense for the first time all season, then Virginia from an ACC that keeps embarrassing itself outside of Duke, and finally my Cyclones who were missing their most important player. Things are about to get real for the Volunteers today, and I don’t think they’ll be able to handle that reality.

This is an elite defense from Michigan that can shut off the only way Tennessee has been able to produce offensively this season. The Vols are more like a hockey team that dumps and chases, living off the offensive glass for second chance points. They don’t shoot from deep hardly at all, so they’ll be trying to score inside against the massive teeth of the Wolverines defense. I’m just not able to see that being successful against such an elite defense with so much size down low, and I think Tennessee gets squeezed into submission here.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) UConn +5.5 vs Duke (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 4:05 PM CT on CBS

I don’t see a lot of edges in either direction for this matchup. It should be a fantastic game between bluebloods, and one where that lack of clear advantages for either side makes taking this many points a smart move in general. Remember that 5 is a very key number in college basketball, so getting the hook along with it here is great value. And historically, the Elite 8 matchups of 1 vs 2 seeds tend to be very competitive and close games, with the 1’s having just a 27-24 SU edge. In a game where both teams are elite defensively and play at very slow paces, I have to ignore the team names and make this a strict numbers play on the dog.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 20-9 (+7.20 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.