Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/29

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics -4 First Quarter @ San Antonio Spurs (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

The Celtics aren’t getting the top seed in the Eastern Conference, so they’ve adopted what they’re calling a “road dogs” mentality and taking every road game more seriously. The antics that come with it are corny and over the top, but it seems to be working as they haven’t lost a road game in a month.

Six of their past seven games have been on the road, and they’re averaging a plus-6.5 average margin in the first quarter of those games. Not surprising for a team that’s been so good in the opening quarter all season, and I think they take advantage of another weak opponent here. The Spurs just don’t fare well against high level competition and it doesn’t get much higher level than a motivated Celtics team, so look for a big early advantage for Boston here.

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Alabama/Duke First Half Over 82.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:49 PM CT on TBS

A first half total this high is a rarity in college basketball. So is two teams meeting in the Elite 8 after they both hung triple digits in their Sweet 16 games, so we’re in very unfamiliar territory here. Conspiracy theorists want to point to the ball or the rims at Prudential Center, but maybe these offenses are just that good.

Duke has scored 1.5 and 1.4 points per possession against Big12 defenses in consecutive games, which is something I’d never believe if you told it to me a couple years ago. But here we are in a new age of college hoops, and putting these offenses on the floor at the same time is absolutely going to result in a ton of points.

If Duke is going to score that efficiently while Alabama dials the tempo to 11, the Blue Devils will score like crazy again in this game. But their one slight weakness defensively has to be the three-point line, and Alabama carrying any of Thursday’s ridiculousness into tonight will mean they can put up plenty themselves. But at some point, likely in the final 10 minutes or so, the stakes of a Final Four berth will factor in and slow this game down, so that’s why I’m looking for the first half to break the scoreboard.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-13 (-0.15 Units) – Recommend Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.