Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/28

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors -2.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TSN

Getting run out in the first half of games is just what Charlotte does, since it gets tougher to tank games for Cooper Flagg if you go into the locker room with a lead. The Hornets are not taking chances on that front as they are dead last in first half scoring, 23rd in first half points allowed, and thus dead last in average first half margin.

It’s been almost comically bad on the road where their average halftime deficit is 8.3 points, so getting the Raptors at this number is cheap by comparison. Toronto is no great first half team, but they’re the only ones on the floor tonight who are actually trying at the game of basketball. With LaMelo Ball also out for the Hornets, I’m liking the chances for Toronto to build a solid halftime lead tonight.

NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz/Denver Nuggets First Quarter Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

It’s a Nuggets home game, you should know the drill by now. I’ll give a little credit to books for trying to adjust to the first quarter over trend in Denver, but those adjustments are only a point or two. That’s not going to cut it when the past 15 home games for the Nuggets are averaging 65.9 first quarter points and have gone 14-1 over this number.

In come the Jazz with their league-worst defensive efficiency, and coupled with Denver’s aversion to defense, this game should be high-flying early on. That’s how it’s been in all three meetings of these teams on the year, with first quarters of 63, 69, and 73 points. And only one of those games was played in Denver, so I love the early over here and would play alternate totals if they’re available to you.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+135; Odds via Fanduel)

Ole Miss vs Michigan State (-170): 6:09 PM CT on CBS

Chalk, chalk, and more chalk. That’s been the story of this excitement-free tournament so far, and I’m not going to stray from the path tonight. Certainly not when I can bet on the lowest remaining seed to go down here, which seems to be the consensus in the market right now as smart money is betting against Ole Miss in this one.

I think it is midnight here for what qualifies as Cinderella, as the Rebels have had some incredible three-point shooting carry them to the Sweet 16. But their run of facing weak three-point defenses comes to a screeching halt as they now face the country’s best three-point percentage defense. If Michigan State can continue that elite perimeter defense and this becomes a question of who wins a lower-scoring game, then Sparty is moving on.

Kentucky vs Tennessee (-205): 6:39 PM CT on TBS

I’m counting on the old adage of how it’s tough to beat a good team three times. That’s what Kentucky is up against tonight after two very surprising wins over Tennessee in the regular season. I say surprising wins because Kentucky shot exactly 50% from deep in both of those games, something the Vols just weren’t able to overcome.

So like the first leg of this parlay, this game comes down to elite three-point defense stepping up, as Tennessee is not far behind Michigan State in that department, ranked 3rd nationally. Kentucky is a very good team, especially offensively, and can shoot the three, but not well enough for lightning to strike three times against the Vols. I see Tennessee getting their revenge here as more chalk moves on to the Elite Eight.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Michigan/Auburn Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:39 PM CT on CBS

Alabama put up 113 (!!) points last night, Duke hung 100, and Florida put up 87, so the top seeds are cooking offensively in the Sweet 16. Time for Auburn to do their part, especially in light of their in-state archrival putting on that kind of performance. Let’s not forget that the Tigers spent the vast majority of the season ranked first in adjusted offensive efficiency, so they have more than enough firepower to carry last night’s offensive showcase into tonight.

They certainly should have offensive success against a Michigan team that’s vulnerable to the three-ball. The Wolverines have tangled with three SEC teams on the year, allowing 85.0 PPG to teams that would be considered some of the lesser offenses in the conference. Auburn’s weakness defensively is inside though, and the twin 7-footers Michigan has should rack up plenty of easy buckets down low. But if Auburn finally takes a game seriously and lights it up like their fellow high seeds, this total is nowhere near high enough.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135; Odds via DraftKings): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA

Freeman was held down last night by an elite lefty in Tarik Skubal, which will happen to most hitters, but has a much better matchup tonight. The Tigers will start Jack Flaherty, who Freeman has faced 19 times in his career, racking up a .368 average and .926 OPS. Freeman crushed right-handed pitching all of last season, and I see him bouncing back tonight to cash this juicy return.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.