Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/27

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Washington Wizards/Golden State Warriors Over 232.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on MNMT

Overs have been the way to go with the NBA lately, and books are making their adjustments for the most part. But I don’t think they’re properly pricing in how these teams are playing right now, as this is a fairly low total for how the league is operating at the moment. These are two of the best over teams in the league, with Golden State 2nd and Washington 4th in record to the over this season.

It’s no surprise for Washington, as this truly awful defense will let any opponent do whatever they want. But the Wizards are also scoring better lately which has helped fuel their 8-2 over run the past 10 games. The Warriors probably won’t take defense too seriously here since they can get whatever they need on the other end of the floor, and Washington’s scrub lineup playing up-tempo should create the conditions needed to clear this total.

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Duke/St John’s First Half Under 66 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on CBS

The total in this game was initially bet up but has since come crashing down. Often times you’ll see that in situations like this where smart money intentionally drove the number up so they can bet it the other way, and I’m suspicious that that’s the case here. Regardless, I’ve been on the side of a low-scoring affair this whole time, as these two excellent defenses and bumbling offenses square off.

Duke leads the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while St John’s is 8th, so both teams know how to defend at the best level in the country. And things are made easier for them defensively going up against offenses that are really struggling in the half-court right now. The Red Storm would prefer to play in transition so they don’t have to face a set defense with no real point guard, but Duke won’t let that happen. And the Blue Devils have trouble in that department too, as Caleb Foster’s loss is showing more and more as Cayden Boozer struggles. I think that gets us a slow start tonight between two elite defensive squads.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Alabama Team Total Under 81.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:35 PM CT on TBS

This Alabama offense is fearsome when it’s on a roll, which it is right now despite missing Aidan Holloway. But hanging 90 on Hofstra and then having a ridiculous shooting night to put another 90 on Texas Tech is one thing, it’s a whole other animal to face Michigan. The Wolverines rank second nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and should be ready to flex that defense tonight after having plenty of time to prepare for Bama.

The Tide are going to be true to the Nate Oats system of dunks and three’s, but they’re not getting dunks against this massive Michigan frontcourt. That leaves the three’s, which the physical and aggressive Michigan backcourt will do everything they can to shut down. Alabama is due for three-point shooting regression here, and if their only true avenue to points isn’t working here, then I think they fall short of this big number tonight.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Michigan St +1.5 vs UConn (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:45 PM CT on CBS

I can’t stand Dan Hurley and his antics, so I can’t stand UConn by association. That might be clouding my judgement here, but I’m going to back what I think is the more talented team tonight. Michigan State definitely has the best player on the court with Jeremy Fears, plus I think they have a slight size and athleticism advantage.

Let’s also remember that this is not the same UConn team that steamrolled through two tournaments and covered 14 tournament games in a row until last weekend. I have significant concerns about the Huskies offensively, and if Sparty can bring their away-game shooting tonight which is almost 8 percentage points better from beyond the arc, they have the ability to pull away. This strikes me as a fishy number that’s begging for UConn money, and as we saw last night with Illinois the Big10 is a force, so I’ll back MSU in the month of Izzo.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 28-11 (+11.16 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.