Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/27

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers/Chicago Bulls Over 234.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on NBCS-Chicago

The Lakers are out for revenge in this game after Chicago embarrassed them with a 146-115 beatdown in LA on Saturday. That revenge will be made tougher for them on no rest after last night’s buzzer-beating win, but that factor probably lends itself more to a high-scoring game than anything. Weakening the legs of a team that starts a guy famously lackadaisical on defense, plus a senior citizen, is not going to help the defensive issues plaguing LA right now.

They can’t stop teams that can space the floor, shoot three’s, and play with pace, which describes the Bulls perfectly, plus Chicago is red-hot offensively. The injury report is so muddled for the Bulls tonight it might even get Adam Silver’s attention, but I simply don’t care, I’m seeing a ton of points here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/OKC Thunder Over 236 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OK

The Thunder have thoroughly dominated this matchup on the season, turning all three meetings into relative blowouts. OKC has averaged 125.0 PPG in those games, and a continuation of that scoring level really raises the floor for getting to this total. Memphis is going to have to do more in that department, and I’m not so sure the absence of Ja Morant actually hurts for my purposes here, as the Grizzlies tend to space the floor and shoot more three’s with him out.

And you have to admit that 238 is a suspiciously high number given Morant’s status, so books see the same thing. But what’s really drawing me in here is that Memphis has the best over record on the road and as an underdog this season, and combining that for a road underdog has seen their games go a ridiculous 17-2 to the over, so I’m seeing another here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies @ OKC Thunder -5.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

This is not a good matchup for Memphis, and that is going to play out in the first half again tonight. All three of the previous meetings have seen the Thunder lead by at least this margin going to halftime, with an average lead of 16.3 points, and the most lopsided one coming in the game Morant didn’t play. Not terribly surprising for the league’s best average first half margin team, and the Thunder are averaging a plus-8.3 margin in first halves at home, so look for them to step on the Grizz early tonight.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) BYU/Alabama Over 175.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:09 PM CT on CBS

These teams have the capability to go absolutely nuclear against just about anyone on any given night, and that’s exactly what I see this game doing. This is much more of an NBA game than a college one, as BYU’s pro-style offense meets Alabama’s unwavering dedication to their dunks-and-three’s approach. There’s just too much shooting talent on the floor for this game as two top-10 offenses meet, and if Alabama dials up the tempo, this can and should get wild. I don’t particularly care about NCAA tournament stakes, these teams are who they are and we’ll see the result on the scoreboard tonight.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Maryland First Half Team Total Over 35 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:39 PM CT on TBS

I’m going to keep attacking Maryland first half team totals as long as they stick around in the dance. This is probably my last opportunity, but it’s one that I like given how I see Florida approaching this game. The Gators have all the depth in the world, while Maryland has absolutely none, so it would be wise for Florida to dial up the tempo right away and tire out the Terps’ short rotation. But that just gives Maryland more opportunities for their excellent offense that’s 8th nationally with 40.1 first half points per game, and I think they cash enough of them in to reach this total.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Arizona/Duke Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:39 PM CT on CBS

I wish I hadn’t been worried about Cooper Flagg’s ankle because it looks perfectly fine, and that has the Duke train rolling. I don’t see Arizona slowing down this offense that’s the best in the country, as the Wildcats get torched from beyond the arc and Duke is making everything from downtown.

It’s almost not fair what the Blue Devils are doing right now, and they seem to enjoy running it up. If they do that and get near 90 points again, this total is nowhere near high enough. Arizona will need to contribute, and that likely means Caleb Love either shooting them in or out of this game, but that should create the style needed to get over tonight’s total.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Duke -9.5 vs Arizona (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

If two 30-plus point wins to start the tournament didn’t convince you, then remember that we’ve already seen this matchup earlier in the season. Duke played a true road game in Tucson and rolled by 14 points, long before they truly found their identity as a team and started crushing everyone.

I really don’t see Arizona keeping pace here if Duke’s three’s are falling, as the Wildcats will get stymied inside by the elite Duke paint defense. A double-digit win in the Sweet 16 isn’t easy, but this Duke team is making a lot of things look easy right now and they should be able to pull it off.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Duke First Half Team Total Over 39 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

This has been the gift that keeps on giving. After 54 and 47 first half points to open the tournament, Duke is obviously rolling and continues to light it up early as the country’s 5th-highest first half scoring team. The Blue Devils went nuclear on bad ACC teams to close the season, but they also did it against elite competition this season. In their 5 non-conference games against fellow tournament teams, Duke went 3-1-1 over this total while averaging 43.6 first half points, and they should do it again tonight.

Double Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Duke -5.5 First Half vs Arizona (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Yeah, I like Duke every which way but loose tonight if you haven’t figured that out yet. And if they’re going over their first half team total, they’re covering this number. Or even if they aren’t going over it they can still hold down Arizona with that elite defense, and pull away to cover town since they lead the country in average first half margin. It was a 7 point halftime lead for Duke down in Tucson when these teams met back in November, and they can easily replicate that tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tyler O’Neill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 2:07 PM CT on SportsNet

Much has been made about Tyler O’Neill and his streak of 5 straight opening days with a home run. If you want to bet that, more power to you, but all the value has been sucked out of the number now and +350 or so for a home run is a horrible ROI. But a nice plus-money return still exists for this much more manageable stat, especially considering O’Neill doesn’t have good power numbers against Jose Berrios. So whether it’s a couple of singles, a double, or even that dinger everyone’s chasing, I like O’Neill to cash this less-juicy return today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.