Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/25

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

It doesn’t make a lot of sense for me that Houston is favored here. This team looks broken mentally, kind of like their hard-nosed coach is finally wearing on everyone. That and disjointed offense, caused by weak shooting numbers, no three-point production, and a bad turnover habit, are what’s contributing to the Rockets current slide down the standings. Speaking of standings, this becomes a huge game for the Wolves who are only half a game up on Houston. Too much is being made in the market about Anthony Edwards remaining out for this one, the Wolves have proven they can win key games without him and should defend home court tonight.

NBA (1 Unit) Chicago Bulls/Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on CHSN

There are a lot of injuries holding stars out of this game and making others game-time decisions, but it’s less about star power than complete lack of defense that has me looking to the first quarter here. All season long Philadelphia has been an excellent early over team, especially at home thanks to allowing 30.4 first quarter points per game. Chicago’s defense also can’t get on track early in games, allowing an average of 30.6 in first quarters on the road.

The Bulls are also going to push the tempo here, and probably play even less defense as a team that doesn’t actually want to win basketball games. it’s also possible Paul George and Joel Embiid return for the Sixers tonight, both of whom would torch this Bulls defense. The previous meetings have hit 58 and 72 first quarter points, but happened well before Chicago had punted on the season, so look for another fast start tonight.

NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat/Cleveland Cavaliers Over 242.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN

Books just cannot get the total right for this matchup, and tonight’s isn’t high enough. The first meeting of the season had a closing total of 248.5(!) points, which they blew past with 256 in regulation before tacking on more in overtime. If you’re missing that badly on a line back in November, then the current version of both teams in tonight’s situation is going to fly over this total.

The Heat simply can’t stop anything right now, allowing 122.4 PPG the past 10 games which is the main driver of those games going 8-2 to the over. Miami is also a much better over team on the road, and they’re catching Cleveland on a back-to-back after a high-possessions game last night. The Cavs are shorthanded defensively but can still fill it up, especially in transition, and Miami’s league-leading pace should provide the right environment to clear this high of a total.

NBA (1 Unit) Washington Wizards/Utah Jazz Over 240.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on MNMT

Who wants to volunteer for some defensive effort in this game? Likely nobody, and even if anyone does, you’ll have to google them because it might be their first minutes in the NBA. Both rosters are absolutely decimated by “injuries” for this game, so we’re going to see the scrubs for 40 minutes.

History has shown that when the B teams get together, points are coming, as nobody grasps defensive concepts but making layups is easy. And these are the two worst defensive teams in the league to begin with by a wide margin, fueling both teams’ strong over records including Utah leading the league in overs at home. I just see a glorified scrimmage in this game that’s ugly for the NBA’s tanking problem, but beautiful for over bettors.

NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) Nevada/Auburn Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

These NIT quarterfinal games are a little different stylistically than the early rounds, but I still see points here. So does the market, as this total has been driven up significantly to line up more with metrics site projections. What I’m seeing is an Auburn team that finally started to take the NIT seriously after missing out on the big dance, and that makes them dangerous against just about anyone.

The Tigers are now up to 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and were able to get a very slow Seattle team into an up-tempo affair on Sunday. They should be able to replicate that here, even with Nevada not being known for tempo. But the issue that has always plagued Auburn this season is defense, which isn’t going away anytime soon, and a Wolfpack team that can really shoot from deep can capitalize. These defenses are foul-prone as well, with the offenses also generating a lot of production from the stripe, so easy points there should help push this over the total.

Degenerates

MLB Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 7:05 PM CT on Netflix

It’s opening night of the MLB season, which is just plain crazy, but let’s get a fun play in here to get the juices flowing for tomorrow’s true start to the season. Everyone knows Judge is my favorite player, but that’s not what this is about. You just have to take advantage of a player like him being priced this way in the bases market, because it won’t be long until you have to lay significant juice, it happens every year. It’s a good matchup for him too, as he’s 3-for-7 lifetime against Giants starter Logan Webb, with a 1.984 OPS, so look for him to start the season off right.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 30-15 (+10.78 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.