Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/25

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Orlando Magic -5 @ Charlotte Hornets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

The Magic have dominated the series with Charlotte this season, and I don’t see any let up here. Orlando is only 1.5 games back in the division race, and has to take full advantage of games like this against awful teams. It’s been easy for them so far, with wins over the Hornets by 25, 11, and 16 points this season, and that’s with LaMelo Ball going nuclear in two meetings and only having Paolo Banchero for one. I’m not terribly concerned with the no rest spot here for Orlando, and if anything that’s creating a natural discount on the number. This Charlotte team has very little interest in being competitive, so I see them getting stomped once again by the motivated Magic.

NBA (0.75 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/Detroit Pistons Over 234 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

The spread and the total have gone up considerably for this game, telling me that Cade Cunningham will be back for the Pistons after missing Sunday’s game. With him in the lineup this Pistons team has plenty of firepower to shred a bad Spurs defense that has allowed 123.3 PPG this month. But the Spurs have gotten the offense back on track too, scoring 122.1 PPG during the past 10 games, and the Detroit defense leaves plenty to be desired, giving up some massive point totals in recent weeks. These are two underrated offenses and one team can’t guard a parked car, so this total is very much in play.

NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder Team Total Over 121.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

One thing you can definitely say about the Thunder this season is they do not take mercy on overmatched opponents. They tend to run it up, as evidenced by their league-leading average margin of victory, and their two wins over Sacramento this season. Those games saw OKC hang 130 and 144 points on the Kings, whose defense struggles against most teams but especially elite offenses like the Thunder have. That weak defense is also on no rest here after playing Boston last night, and overs have been the trend for Sacramento when they’re on no rest. I’ll isolate that over to the Thunder though, as this team is likely to put on a show for national TV and hang another big total against the Kings.

NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) North Texas @ Oklahoma St -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Overall it was a disappointing season for Oklahoma State, as a tough Big12 sent them to a losing record. But give this team credit for handling business on their own floor, going 13-3 this season at Gallagher-Iba with those 3 losses coming to teams you’ll see play in the Sweet 16 this week. So I think they can get it done again here after lucking into home-court advantage with other higher NIT seeds falling.

North Texas was a dominant home team themselves, but going on the road against quality competition was a struggle for them, even in the down AAC. This will be a shock to the Mean Green’s system as they want to grind games to a crawl while the Cowboys play extremely up-tempo, and should be able to dictate that preferred style on their own floor. With OK State so adept at getting to the line and North Texas having fouling issues, home court takes on even more meaning, and a Cowboys squad that is 12-0 straight up when favored should get the win and cover here.

CBI Tournament (0.5 Unit) Illinois St/Incarnate Word Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU

This total has been flying up, right through the metrics site projections and showing no sign of stopping. I would have to agree, as this CBI tournament has brought out a different version of Incarnate Word than we’ve seen all season. The Cardinals are typically extremely slow-paced, but have adopted a much faster style here that resulted in very high-scoring first and second-round games in this event.

If they keep that up, and Illinois State comes along for the ride as they typically do against fast-paced opponents, then the bad defenses will take over and get this game to the total. These defenses are ranked 237th and 294th in adjusted efficiency, and both really struggle to stop what the other team wants to run on offense. For Incarnate Word that’s guarding the three, and for Illinois State it’s protecting the rim, so look for both offense to thrive in a surprisingly up-tempo game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.