Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/24

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Chicago Bulls First Quarter Team Total Over 28.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

It’s not looking good for Nikola Jokic to return tonight, so that’s why I’m not going with old reliable and taking the first quarter over for a Nuggets home game. But arguably the biggest reason you want to roll with first quarter overs in Denver is because of how bad their defense is to start games, allowing 31.1 on average which is most in the league. The Joker being in or out does very little to impact that number, and I think the Bulls get there tonight. They’ll be playing up-tempo which suits Denver just fine, and they’ll also get up a ton of three’s. The Nuggets also struggle with guarding the three at home, so this should be an easy total to clear for Chicago.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/Sacramento Kings First Quarter Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

This game’s full total has been plummeting on injury news impacting both teams, and I think it’s time to buy back in the other direction for at least the first quarter. I’ll definitely take a discount when the league’s highest-scoring first quarter team on the road is involved, regardless of the status of Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis. Them being out didn’t faze Boston last night as they dropped 34 in the first quarter against a much better defensive team in Portland.

Sacramento is one of the best matchups the Celtics could ask for, as they struggle to slow teams down in the first quarter and are the league’s most generous three-point defense at home. Boston should be firing away from three as usual, especially with their best shooters getting more early minutes because of those injuries. Tired legs from this being their third road game in four nights should impact Boston here, and I’ll take the over on what I see as a discounted number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.