Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/22

Locks

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) St John’s/Kansas First Half Under 67.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:15 PM CT on CBS

Both of these teams are elite on the defensive end of the floor, and neither has an offensive style that is going to generate quick buckets or points in bulk. That’s a recipe for a slow start, especially in a game between high-profile programs with high-profile coaches that are sure to have a feeling out process in this matchup.

St John’s likes to get out in transition far more than Kansas does, but the Red Storm are still a top-10 defense by adjusted efficiency and force long possessions by their opponents. Kansas is also top-10 defensively, with the second-best effective field goal defense in the country, so they’ll slow SJU’s reliance on interior offense. The Jayhawks don’t force turnovers though so they won’t be playing in transition, which has me seeing a very slow start in this marquee matchup today.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): St John’s -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

You’d think just by looking at this game that it’s an epic coaching duel, but is it? For my money, Rick Pitino is on a far higher level than Bill Self, who typically bows out of the dance early when the Jayhawks aren’t a top-seeded team.

And Kansas is just lost offensively right now, as has been the case for the past month and was obvious on Friday when they almost choked away the game against Cal Baptist. All you have to do is focus on Darryn Peterson, or let his lack of focus do it for you, and Pitino knows this well. I think a Red Storm team that is headed in the complete opposite direction of KU takes this one easily today.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Florida -10.5 vs Iowa (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on TBS

Welcome to March Chalk-ness. The little guy doesn’t have much hope anymore, and big favorites of 8 or more points are rolling at a 45-1 straight up clip the past two years in the tournament. So if Florida is winning this game, they’re likely to do it with their usual flair for style points and dominance, especially against an Iowa team that has closed the season on a 6-10 ATS run.

I really don’t think Iowa has a chance, as the Hawkeyes are severely undersized against Florida’s frontcourt, and outmatched athletically everywhere on the floor. Iowa will try to grind this to a halt with their glacial tempo, but that’s extremely difficult against a Gators team that is great at forcing their style into every game. Florida will just pile up too many easy points inside with their deep list of incredible bigs, exploiting an Iowa defense that’s just 272nd in two-point percentage defense to take them to cover town.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Arizona -11.5 vs Utah St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:50 PM CT on truTV

I’ve been as high as you can get on Arizona since seeing them dismantle my Cyclones live, and I think they keep rolling here. It’s finally time to lean into fading the Mountain West, as this conference has been a disaster when they face the big boys. It’s obvious when you dig into Utah State’s schedule that they’re in for a shock here, as the Aggies played one difficult non-conference game all season in losing by 13 at South Florida. The size, physicality, and ability to score inside for Arizona are all things Utah State has not seen and cannot counter, so it’s simple to me that another big favorite is going to roll today.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UCLA +4.5 vs UConn (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:45 PM CT on TNT

Everyone needs to stop treating this UConn team like the teams Danny Hurley has had for the past few years. The Huskies just aren’t that good, with an offense that vanishes for long stretches which has been an issue to close the season. The change in the Huskies is evident in the fact that they were on a 14-0 ATS run in the tournament until Friday night, which actually should be expected for a team that was one of the worst bets all year.

But they’re still commanding a lot of respect in the betting market, and opportunities like this to fade them are worth jumping on. I actually have UCLA moving on in my bracket with some Final 4 futures too, and definitely think they’re live here, hopefully with the services of Tyler Bilodeau tonight. This is a Bruins team that has figured it out at the right time, and when their stars are healthy they’re as good as just about anyone. This should be a grind of a game, with both teams playing slow and focusing on defense, but that creates natural value on the dog and I’ll take the points here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 26-18 (+6.35 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.