Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/21

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 First Quarter @ Phoenix Suns (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on AZFamily

I’ve been distracted by March Madness and almost missed this opportunity. It’s getting strange for the Cavaliers, as they had another amazing start to a game turn into an ugly loss against an inferior opponent. That’s three straight losses for a team we thought might win 70 games, but as is usually the case, Cleveland has been dominant in the first quarter of those losses with a plus-9.3 average margin.

They’re certainly capable of replicating that here against a Phoenix team that’s been nothing but disappointing all season, and will be missing Bradley Beal again. The Cavs appear to be at full strength for this game and will turn it around eventually, which I can almost guarantee will start with a big first quarter, so watch for that here.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Alabama Team Total Over 94.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:40 AM CT on truTV

Let’s be honest, Alabama can name their score in most games, and will put up an NBA type number here if they feel like it. The Tide have gotten to 95 or more points 13 times this season, with an additional 3 games of landing right on 94 points. So this level of scoring is nothing new to them, and there are plenty of paths to them reaching it again.

I think the main one they take is dominating Robert Morris in transition, as the Colonials have struggled with that all season, even against weak Horizon opponents. Bobby Mo is bottom-40 nationally in opponent possession length, so teams get early good looks against their defense and take advantage. Facing the fastest-paced, most explosive offense in the country will not go well for them, so expect Alabama to tease triple digits here.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Lipscomb/Iowa St Over 142.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 12:30 PM CT on TNT

The injury to Keshon Gilbert is the most depressing thing I can imagine as an Iowa State fan, and basically eliminates them from national title contention before the tournament starts. But I’ll enjoy the ride while it lasts, and I think it starts with a lot of points in this first matchup.

I’ve been down on ISU’s defense away from Hilton all season, and neutral sites like this count for where their defense is not up to par. A Lipscomb team that can shoot the lights out, ranked 23rd in effective field goal rate this season, and takes a tons of three’s is exactly the kind of offense that can score on the pack-line defense the Cyclones run.

This Bison team runs offensive sets to perfection and always has at least four deadly shooters on the floor, but they’re going to struggle to contain ISU on the interior. The Clones have a major size advantage and will get to the rim with ease in this game, piling up the points themselves. That should equal enough offense to get over this total no matter what style of game unfolds.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Ole Miss +2.5 vs North Carolina (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 3:05 PM CT on TNT

Louisville was blown out by Creighton to kick off yesterday’s action. Clemson didn’t get off the bus against McNeese yesterday afternoon. Who knows where the bottom is for Duke if Cooper Flagg’s ankle becomes a big problem. This is a systemic issue with a weak ACC, much like going against the Mountain Worst in this tournament, which happens to be what made UNC look good on Tuesday night.

The hype that the Tar Heels have gotten since that win has to be irking Ole Miss, who navigated the SEC gauntlet only to be underdogs against a team that didn’t deserve a bid. This game will hinge on whether UNC can continue their insane three-point shooting against a no-middle defense for the Rebels, but I’m willing to bet that a disrespected Ole Miss squad is more battle tested and will get this win.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Maryland First Half Team Total Over 38.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:35 PM CT on TBS

If the Keshon Gilbert injury is too much for my Cyclones to overcome, then my backup team to root for is Maryland, who should start this tournament out with a bang. To be fair, I think Grand Canyon will push the Terps in this game and I would not be interested in laying double digits, but that doesn’t mean Maryland won’t score like crazy. Particularly early on as they’re 6th nationally in first half scoring, thanks to a starting 5 that is the highest-scoring unit in the country.

This projects as a very up-tempo game with both teams pushing pace, and that will give Maryland a ton of extra possessions early in the game. Maryland has a size and athleticism advantage here, and they used those against other mid-major opponents this season to average 53.4 first half points and go 8-1 over this total, so expect more of the same today.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Florida -28.5 vs Norfolk St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:50 PM CT on TNT

This Florida team isn’t just a good team, they’re a great team. That’s because they cover, leading all power conference schools with 26 ATS victories this season. All they’ve done this season is pick up momentum, and I think they take this opportunity to show out. The Gators have the best offense in the country, and are elite on defense as well, especially inside where their size might be the deepest and most imposing in the country.

So best of luck to Norfolk State, who is forced to try to live inside the arc due to awful three-point shooting. The Spartans also get burned by the three on defense, so this game has the potential to get out of hand in a hurry. Florida has been routinely scoring 90-plus points against SEC-caliber defenses, and that kind of output tonight will make a 30-point win elementary.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Marquette -3.5 vs New Mexico (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:25 PM CT on TBS

I’ve already called it the Mountain Worst once today, so here’s another opportunity. Every year with this conference is the old quarter-glued-to-the-sidewalk prank, and I don’t see it being any different this time around. Just look at the beatings handed out to San Diego State on Tuesday and Utah State last night by power conference teams. New Mexico is consistently hyped as being the difference-maker from the conference, ready to surprise everyone, but I’m not buying it. The Lobos are too reliant on Donovan Dent, and Marquette has the lockdown perimeter defenders to take him out of the equation. The Golden Eagles take excellent care of the ball and won’t be rattled by UNM’s intense pace, so while I don’t love the number here, I do see a clear victory for Marquette tonight.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Akron/Arizona Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:35 PM CT on truTV

Akron is the prototypical new-age college basketball team, playing incredibly fast while shooting a ton of three’s. That worked almost to perfection for them in the MAC this season, scoring 90.7 PPG and only losing one conference game, when, you guessed it, they shot horribly from deep. I don’t see their three-point shooting struggling here, as Arizona’s defense has been burned consistently by the three this season.

The Zips are going to need every three they can get, because the Wildcats should score at will inside with their massive size and athleticism advantages down low. Both teams will look to push tempo and score in transition tonight, so the kind of offensive potential in this game justifies such a high total, and I think they can get there.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Oklahoma +5.5 vs UConn (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:25 PM CT on TNT

UConn as a program has won and covered 12 straight NCAA tournament games, so naturally they’d be installed as favorites here. But that record was built by vastly different teams than this version of the Huskies, and it’s just too many points for a squad that doesn’t have the same juice this time around. It starts with the defense, which doesn’t have anything close to the rim protection of the past two seasons, and the Huskies have struggled as a result with some shockingly poor performances.

The other knock against the UConn defense is their habit of fouling, ranked 326th in foul rate and going up against an Oklahoma team that’s elite at getting to the line. Dan Hurley might lose his mind in this game if the refs have a fair whistle, and a parade to the line by the Sooners is an easy way to keep this game close. Let’s not forget that Oklahoma was the last team to lose a game early this season, and I won’t be surprised at all to see them win this outright.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Xavier/Illinois Over 160.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:45 PM CT on CBS

I’m glad it was Xavier to make it through the First Four on Wednesday, as the Musketeers have the offense and style to make this a track meet. They’ll have no problem pushing tempo and shooting a ton of three’s, which they make at an excellent rate as we saw in their comeback on Wednesday night.

Illinois is impossible to figure out, as you never know which version of this team will show up on a nightly basis. But what’s consistent with the Illini is their refusal to play any defense and willingness to run, both of which will be on display here with a similar opponent. Two teams with elite offenses and massive weaknesses on defense should send this well over the total.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Bryant +17.5 vs Michigan St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TBS

I’m skeptical of this Michigan State team for a number of reasons. Let’s start with the fact that teams who get a 1 or 2 seed after starting the season unranked tend to flop in the tournament, so they’re vulnerable from a general standpoint. This team has also been far too fortunate with opponent shooting, especially from deep, and that luck has to turn around eventually. And this game presents a tough matchup for their offense, which is almost devoid of high-level shooters.

The way to beat the Spartans is to force them to make jumpshots, and that’s exactly what the size of Bryant can do in the halfcourt. The Bulldogs are also an elite transition defense that will keep MSU from running, further exposing a team that’s just 152nd in effective field goal rate and 326th in three-point percentage. Keeping Sparty where they’re uncomfortable is what Bryant is built to do, and that should keep this game tighter than the blowout this line implies.

Degenerates

NBA New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

OMG Timberwolves, get it together against these awful opponents. It’s maddening to watch them dismantle Denver and then choke away games to franchises that actively want to lose for draft position. Hopefully a day off in between this doubleheader with the Pelicans gets the Wolves refocused, and if it did, they’ll come out with another blazing start. They covered this number in the first quarter of Wednesday’s debacle since that game followed a previous debacle, so at least we know they can bounce back for 12 minutes. I’m hopeful they have this figured out, and will back them early on tonight when I think they’ll show it.

Tiny Nick has gained +65.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.