Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/20

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Brooklyn Nets Team Total Under 98.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on MSG

Wow, 98.5 points for a team total in the modern NBA. That’s a serious indictment of this Nets team, or the NBA’s tanking problem, or probably both, but I definitely see it as a valid number. It’s still too high though, as the Nets have absolutely nobody available to contribute enough scoring tonight. Let’s remember that the Nets have averaged just 88 PPG against their crosstown rivals in three meetings this season, only once sneaking over this number with 100 points.

And that was a game where Michael Porter Jr and Noah Clowney combined for 47 of them, neither of whom will be playing tonight. The Knicks also held them to a 66-piece in one of the more shameful games in recent memory, where again Brooklyn was fully healthy. The Nets roster is just in a really bad place right now, and a Knicks defense that knows how to hold down the “good” version of them should shut them down again.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Kentucky/Santa Clara First Half Under 73.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 11:15 AM CT on CBS

It worked yesterday, as the system play of going under in the first half of the day’s first game continues to pay dividends. This is an even higher number to go under, which is nice, but also explainable by the offensive potential of these two teams. They’re also two relatively up-tempo teams, but both have been very good at forcing longer possessions defensively this season. I would have to think Santa Clara wants to play a slower game here though, not get into a track meet with Kentucky’s athletes.

It was a strategy that worked well for them throughout the WCC tournament, even being able to reign in Gonzaga fairly well. Another angle favoring a lower-scoring start is that the Broncos are one of the country's worst teams at getting to the free throw line, so easy points won’t come that way. If the Broncos can force some turnovers while UK’s excellent perimeter defense keeps the three’s from falling, we’ll see the system play work out again this morning.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Iowa State Team Total Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:50 PM CT on CBS

We saw some monstrous numbers put up by most of the top-seeded teams yesterday, with Duke being the exception, but I see the possibility for another here. This Tennessee State team, with a strength of schedule ranking at 347th, just doesn’t have the experience against high-level competition like my Cyclones, whose offense should have an incredibly efficient afternoon.

The experience that Tennessee State does have comes down to just two opponents inside the top-100 on KenPom, and those games resulted in Belmont dropping 87 and Tennessee hanging 89 points. ISU has a far more efficient offense than both, and if the Tigers are going to push tempo with their usual style, it really raises the floor for the Cyclones here.

While it was all in the comfort of Hilton Coliseum, ISU averaged 96.6 PPG against low-major teams this season. I think this team wants to shed the label of a home-court merchant though, as well as make a statement off a heartbreaking loss in the Big12 tournament, so look for them to hang a big number here.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Hofstra +11.5 vs Alabama (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:15 PM CT on truTV

There’s nothing fancy or creative about the handicap here, and I’m sure everyone else is jumping on the same narrative. But I don’t care, I’m bought in to the fact that it’s going to be very difficult for Alabama to compensate for the loss of their second-leading scorer, and in my opinion best overall player. It’s also a massive distraction, and in a short time window to make adjustments, so my confidence level in the Tide is low.

We might very well get a reaction of oh-yeah-watch-this from Bama today, who still has a lot of firepower, but they also have a lot of defensive issues that have caused trouble all season. Going up against a scrappy Hofstra team, with an excellent scorer at lead guard in Cruz Davis, is going to make things more difficult than they want, so I’ll take the points here.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Miami-OH +11.5 vs Tennessee (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on TBS

Don’t let them get hot, or confident. Miami-OH proved themselves on Wednesday night against upper-level competition, and while that task gets even tougher today, I think they’re in the right place to keep this competitive. The most important thing for the RedHawks now is that the pressure of an undefeated season is gone, as they’re no longer the hunted or laying big numbers. They can play loose now, and for a team with their shooting ability, that makes them a dangerous out in this tournament.

If they’re able to connect on long-range shots today, they can make life difficult for a Tennessee team with very little offensive punch. The Vols have a very poor shooting team, relying instead on offensive rebounding and second-chance points. That can only get you so far, and Rick Barnes’ tournament struggles are legendary, especially when he’s not a high seed. So this is just too many points against a team playing loose and with confidence, I think we get a game here.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+155; Odds via Caesars)

Iowa (-130) vs Clemson: 5:50 PM CT on TNT

Experience and current form matter quite a bit this week, and Iowa has the advantage in both categories. The Hawkeyes if you’ll remember are essentially Drake from last season, as most of the roster followed Ben McCollum to Iowa City. Behind Bennett Stirtz, this team knows what it takes to succeed in this tournament, and will always play smart basketball.

Clemson meanwhile limps into the dance after having lost arguably their most important player in Carter Welling, and an already weak offense takes a big step back. This game is going to be a slog where you can easily get to the fridge and back during each possession without missing anything, but Iowa’s pedigree and coaching should carry them to a win.

UCLA (-225) vs UCF: 6:25 PM CT on TBS

I’ll gladly back another Big Ten team in the first round here, as they’ve been excellent in getting wins and covers the past couple years. The spread is a little high for my liking, but I trust this UCLA team to get a win as they’re very underseeded in my opinion. Intermittent struggles this season caused by injuries have kept the Bruins off most radars, but when healthy they’re among the best rosters in the country.

Mick Cronin knows how to take the Bruins a long way with a seed like this, and what appears to be a healthy roster might be up to the task. This backcourt of Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark has been playing at an elite level, and guards are what get you success in March. I think they can slow down UCF’s up-tempo attack, and knock off a Knights team that wouldn’t be here if not for an OT buzzer-beater last week.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Queens Team Total Over 68.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:35 PM CT on truTV

If you want to expect good things out of Matt Painter and Purdue in this tournament, go right ahead. I’m not falling for it, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Queens give them a scare tonight, with the Royals certainly able to put up points. Queens team total overs have fed families all season, as this offense plays fast and can shoot the lights out.

Credit the Royals for scheduling tough opponents this season, as they had 5 games against power conference teams. They managed 72.2 PPG in those contests, going over this total in 4 of them. If Purdue’s offense is on, they might be able to name their score against a bad defense with Queens creating extra possessions, but that just pulls the Royals up with them. The Boilermakers aren’t their usual selves defensively, ranked just 232nd in effective field goal defense this season, so I think Queens can shoot their way over this number.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Florida Team Total Over 95.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:25 PM CT on TNT

The only question here is whether Florida wants to score 100 or not, because they can name their score tonight. I think they do want to make a statement, similar to the other top seeds like Michigan who crossed the century mark last night. It will help them erase the memory of their ugly exit in the SEC tournament, and remind the field that they’re still the defending champs.

They won’t face much resistance from Prairie View’s defense, and be gifted extra possessions by the Panthers playing very up-tempo. This should be target practice for the Gator guards, and a game of easy dunks inside for their monster front line. Prairie View scheduled 3 of Florida's SEC league-mates this season, giving up 91 to Missouri, 104 to LSU, and 111 to Texas A&M. None of those offenses are anywhere close to Florida’s efficiency or potential, so if they’re in the mood to do it, the Gators can cruise past this total.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Cal Baptist/Kansas Under 138.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:45 PM CT on CBS

This total has been ticking upwards, and I really don’t understand why. These are two of the best under teams in the country, with Kansas coming in at 22-11 and Cal Baptist at 21-12 to the under. Those marks are thanks to a couple of elite defenses that will square off here, along with a slow, grind-it-out style by the Lancers that should frustrate KU here.

The Jayhawks have made their living on defense all season, ranking 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency with the 4th-best effective field goal defense in the country. It won’t take much for them to shut down a weak Lancers offense that is 302nd in effective field goal percentage, but KU will get guarded with a purpose here. Cal Baptist is one of the hardest-working teams on defense you’ll see, and I think they can slow down a Jayhawks offense that is at the mercy of Darryn Peterson’s mood swings. This should also be a slower-paced game, and with metrics sites projecting it in the low 130’s I’ll take the under all day.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-18 (+2.05 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.