Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/20

Locks

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Creighton/Louisville First Half Under 67.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:15 AM CT on CBS

I make this play every year regardless of the matchup. It’s just too early for points, and there is something about the first game of the tournament that gets in the heads of players. The neutral court with unfamiliar sightlines does no favors to shooters either, especially for two teams that base their offenses on a high volume of three-point attempts. It also helps to have two strong defensive squads in this game, with Louisville ranked 21st and Creighton 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Obviously I need action on the first game of the day, and this angle has treated me well over the years.

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) High Point/Purdue Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:40 AM CT on truTV

This is one of my favorite bets of the entire first round because I don’t see either team stopping the other. High Point in particular struggles on defense, as their drop coverage scheme leaves them vulnerable to screen-and-pop actions that Purdue runs so well. The Panthers have also never seen an offense as efficient as Purdue’s as they only played one tournament team all season: Norfolk State who got a 16 seed which barely qualifies.

So the Boilermakers should score at will here, but also give up plenty themselves as they’ve become one of the worst two-point defenses in the country down the stretch of the season. High Point can really shoot it, especially inside the arc where they’re 15th nationally in two-point percentage, so defensive vulnerabilities for both squads will send this well over the total.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Montana/Wisconsin Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:30 PM CT on TNT

This is going to be an efficiency bonanza, as both teams shoot the ball extremely well and will maximize their possessions. Montana has a sneaky-good offense that’s not getting enough appreciation as we start the tournament, with the Grizzlies ranked 13th nationally in effective field goal rate. Wisconsin has not had the same lockdown defense as previous seasons and is playing at a faster tempo than ever, so they’ll give Montana plenty of opportunity that I think the Grizzlies cash in on. But Montana can’t stop anything either, and an elite offense from Wisconsin that never turns it over will feast. Montana played three tournament teams in the non-conference, allowing 88.7 points in those games, so if the Badgers reach that level then this total will be well within reach.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Houston First Half Team Total Over 38.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on TBS

What Houston tends to do to mid and low-major cupcakes in the first half of games is probably illegal in some states. The Cougars have always been dominant defensively and lock opponents down before halftime, which usually explains their national-best first half margin every year.

But this year’s team is a little different, doing it with offense alongside their defense, and it’s that offense I’m targeting here. The Coogs averaged 44.8 first half points in their 6 games against opponents of this level during the non-conference slate. They also went 5-1 over this particular total in those games, only falling short against Troy who has an excellent defense of their own.

SIU-Edwardsville has decent size that can slow Houston down inside, but the Cougars have turned into such an elite three-point shooting team that they should be able to pile up points from the perimeter here. I expect Houston to go high-volume from outside in this game, especially given the J’Wan Roberts injury, and use the country’s 4th-best three-point percentage to rack up a ton of early points.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Wofford First Half Team Total Under 25.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:50 PM CT on TNT

The ultimate karmic punishment here would be Wofford center Kyler Filewich hitting one of his granny-style free throws to push the Terriers over this total. But I don’t think they’ll be all that close to this number against one of the country’s best defenses that will shut the water off for what they want to do. Wofford is a very slow-paced team and doesn’t play in transition, which spells disaster in the half court against Tennessee.

And since the Terriers are highly reliant on three-point shooting, facing the country’s top three-point percentage defense is a nightmare matchup. Wofford tangled with one tournament team all season, going to Cameron Indoor where Duke held them to 14 first half points, and the Blue Devils don’t have anywhere near the perimeter defense Tennessee does. This game should be extra slow and really ugly for Wofford, and I don’t see them having much success at all early on.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Yale +4 First Half vs Texas A&M (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:25 PM CT on TBS

Yale is much more of a first half team than a second half team, which Texas A&M is much more of a second half team than a first half team. That juxtaposition should create an excellent opportunity to back Yale early here, as well as jumping on A&M at halftime or in the live market. I personally think the Bulldogs have what it takes to pull the outright upset, but this first half number is too good to pass up.

The Aggies just don’t have enough offense, ranked 317th in effective field goal rate, to run away from a tough, smart Yale squad that is excellent on the defensive boards. A&M’s best offense is a missed shot as they lead the country in offensive rebound rate, but Yale’s toughness on the defensive glass can negate that, especially early on. Yale also has elite defenders and one of the best shotmakers in the country with John Poulakidis, and this group knocked off Auburn last year. I think the first and second half splits really come into play though, and I like the Bulldogs to probably lead going to half but will take 4 points of insurance.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Drake Team Total Over 63.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:35 PM CT on truTV

Drake is a very popular upset pick and I totally understand why. This offense, while extremely slow-paced at the country’s slowest adjusted tempo, is nonetheless lethal thanks to its precision. The Bulldogs can really shoot it, grab a good amount of offensive rebounds, and are excellent at getting to the free throw line. If all your games are glacially slow, those things don’t help get you better than 284th in scoring which is where Drake finished the season.

But in a game where Missouri sets a fast pace and continues to struggle mightily on defense, the Bulldogs should score with ease. Mizzou’s defense limped into the dance allowing 90-plus points in 6 of their final 8 games, and has had real trouble with putting teams on the free throw line. The Tigers also want to rip and run more than just about anyone, so them driving up the pace will give Drake a lot more possessions than they’re used to. I think they capitalize on them, get over this team total, and maybe spring the upset because of it.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) UNC Wilmington/Texas Tech First Half Over 67.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on truTV

I might have started the day with a first half under, but I’m finishing it with a first half over because these are two teams that are among the best out there for putting up early points. Texas Tech in particular ranks 15th in first half scoring, but Wilmington is sneaky in that department at 33rd in the country. But for as good as Tech is defensively, they struggle with allowing points before halftime at just 101st in the country.

The Red Raiders might really have issues stopping this Wilmington team, as the Seahawks are excellent at scoring inside with two of the most effective post scorers in the country with Harlan Obioha and Khamari McGriff. Tech’s biggest defensive weakness is down low, but they should also put on a three-point clinic here. The Seahawks give up a ton of three-point production, and Tech got good news on the status of Chance McMillan, one of the best three-point shooters in the country. His availability has me expecting a lot of points, and I think that starts early to get over this fairly moderate number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +66.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.