Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/19

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Detroit Pistons Team Total Over 123.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT

Both the total and the spread in this game came down significantly with Cade Cunningham unavailable for Detroit tonight, which brings the Pistons team total down as well. Thanks for the discount, because it doesn’t matter what star is out for what team, everyone else can still score at will against this Wizards defense. Washington has no interest in that end of the floor, letting every team get whatever they want during this 13-game losing streak, where their tank-a-thon has led to 128.4 PPG given up. The Pistons put 130 on them Tuesday night with Cunningham playing only 5 minutes before getting injured, so I simply see this as a discount that I’m more than happy to take.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Utah Jazz First Half Over 117.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ

Yesterday, books made the ridiculous mistake of not splitting the first and second half totals correctly with the Jazz facing the Wolves. Today, they’ve fixed that mistake and made the first half higher than 50% of the full-game total, but I still like the number here. It’s a number that’s acting like just because the Bucks are without Giannis, they’ll have trouble scoring against the worst defense in the league.

The Jazz simply can’t guard anyone, and won’t try either, plus Milwaukee has shown impressive offensive ability without Giannis in the lineup. Utah is surrendering a league-high 63.6 first half PPG at home, a number any team can take advantage of. They’re also by far the best over team at home, and on no rest tend to fly over the total. I get the sense though that both teams will start to run out of gas later in this game, so I’m looking to the first half for lots of scoring here.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) TCU/Ohio State First Half Under 67.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 11:15 AM CT on CBS

First game of Thursday? Of course I’m going to have action here, and this is a tried and true method of betting the tournament. While everyone and their third cousin will be tuning into this game, with undoubtedly a ticket on the favorite, the over, or both, the smart move is to go the opposite way. It’s too early for points, and unders have long been the way to go in games tipping off before noon central on the first two days of the tournament.

It helps to have two excellent defenses squaring off, with TCU 23rd and OSU 54th in adjusted defensive efficiency coming into today. Both teams are also some of the best in the country at forcing long possessions defensively. So in an 8-vs-9 matchup where these teams are well-matched, in an unfamiliar neutral arena, I expect another slow start to the tourney’s tip-off game.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Troy +13 vs Nebraska (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:40 AM CT on truTV

This is another game that matches the under system above, but I prefer taking the dog here. If it does play out as a low-scoring game, that creates natural value on an underdog, especially a double-digit one like Troy is here. The Trojans also bring a very slow pace and strong defense to this game, particularly on the perimeter which will be essential today.

Nebraska is always going to live or die by the three, and lately those shots have not been dropping. Putting them in a big arena here with unfamiliar sightlines, against a Troy defense that’s 43rd in three-point percentage allowed might extend those struggles. I’m also expecting a good deal of nerves from the Huskers today as they try to secure the school’s first-ever tournament win, and that should all add up to a closer game than expected.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) South Florida Moneyline vs Louisville (+165; Odds via Fanduel): 12:30 PM CT on TNT

This is one of the more compelling matchups of the day, and the first round, which just got more interesting with Louisville announcing they’ll be without Mikel Brown today. That caused the spread to dip even more than it already has, so you can keep the points, I’ll hop on board a lot of people’s bracket picks and take South Florida outright here.

I think South Florida is going to be a problem not only in this game, but for Michigan State if they can advance. This is a grown-man roster whose physicality gives everyone fits, as they love to crash the offensive glass as well as play up-tempo. The Bulls are also one of the hottest teams in the country, going 17-3 straight up against the AAC with those three losses coming by 5 combined points with 3 OT periods involved. This is a juicy enough return for me to just play the moneyline, especially with the best of the number long gone, so look for at USF upset today.

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Wisconsin/High Point Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:50 PM CT on TBS

Wisconsin served me well in the Big10 tournament with their ability from beyond the arc being on display, and I don’t see them cooling off here. This team is going to fire away from three with absolutely no fear, and they have the elite shooters and scorers to put up a lot of points on anyone. High Point just doesn’t have the horses defensively to stop Wisconsin from doing what they want, they have to count on the Badgers going cold to have any hope of pulling the classic 12/5 upset.

What I do think they’ll do is push the pace at every opportunity, especially on long rebounds from missed three’s. The Panthers have been an excellent fast-break team all season, and average the 24th-fastest offensive possession length in the country, so they’re used to playing in transition. That’s where they’re probably best-suited to score against the Badgers, although this should also be a high-efficiency game with both teams being elite at taking care of the ball. That’s just too many factors pointing towards a high-scoring game, and I think we get a fun one here.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Arkansas -15.5 vs Hawaii (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on TBS

I think if any team is going to make a national title push from outside the top-12 seeds, Arkansas is it. The Razorbacks just have too much talent, especially at lead guard with Darius Acuff, not to put a scare into the big boys while crushing teams like Hawaii along the way. This is an incredible stylistic mismatch, as the Warriors play a unique style of defense where they never help.

Trying that against Acuff will result in him going for 30 or more, so we may see Hawaii resort to a zone that they’ve used a couple times this season. Perfect, as an Arkansas team that’s 8th nationally in three-point percentage and never turns the ball over will feast on that too. The Big West was down this season, and Arkansas went 6-2 ATS against lower conference competition this season, so they should be able to run out Hawaii today.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Howard +31 vs Michigan (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on CBS

Howard has no chance in this game of pulling a UMBC or Fairleigh Dickinson, but I think the best cover team in the country can at least stay inside this monstrosity of a number. After their win and cover in the First Four, this Howard squad is now 21-8 ATS on the season, including 2-1 against the number when facing power conference teams.

This smaller Bison squad is going to get killed inside against Michigan’s giants, but they are good at limiting three-point production so ideally they won’t get buried by a barrage of triples. That helps stay inside a big spread like this, as does Michigan’s likely desire to call off the dogs at some point and stay healthy. The Wolverines are already in enough injury trouble with LJ Cason out, and they truly haven’t been the same without him. If any of those weaknesses or just a respect for their opponent shows up tonight, Howard will finish the season with one final cover.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Texas A&M +3.5 vs St Mary’s (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:35 PM CT on truTV

This St Mary’s team was good this year, but not great. They leveraged a strong home court advantage in what was a relatively weak WCC to look better than they truly were, especially away from that home court. It seems like every year we see the Gaels get shellshocked when they run into an opponent with elite athleticism that wants to run in transition and attack the rim.

St Mary’s has impressive size, actually much more than A&M, but it’s the athleticism and speed factors that I think they’ll struggle with. A&M coach Bucky McMillan has a very difficult style to prepare for, and this Aggies team not only scores well in transition but buries lots of three’s on the run too. I think it’s important to note that St Mary’s played a very similar team in style and athleticism, from the same conference no less, when they were run out by Vanderbilt in Atlantis. The SEC is just a different animal for these smaller schools, and I think we see that play out here so I’ll take the full possession worth of points.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Penn/Illinois Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:25 PM CT on TNT

This total has been ticking up gradually, and I think it’s still far too low. This game sets up as a potential three-point contest, as Illinois and their love affair with the three meet a Penn team that shoots it from deep at the 11th-best percentage in the country. The Quakers better hope those are going down for them, as it’s their only route to points against an Illinois team that can score in a multitude of ways.

The Illini will take a ton of three’s as they usually do, but their offense is incredibly effective overall, ranked 2nd nationally in adjusted efficiency. They have the most size in the country, which creates their elite offensive rebounding ability, so even misses will turn into a lot of points. Illinois gives up a lot of three-point production though, and Penn will likely push tempo here and get clean possessions against an Illini defense that forces the fewest turnovers in the country. That adds up to highly efficient offense from both sides, and should send this over the total.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Georgia -2.5 vs St Louis (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:45 PM CT on CBS

I hate going against a fun, entertaining, and deserving St Louis squad here. But much like the St Mary’s situation against A&M, this is a mid-major team about to go through some things against a team that has a roster of dudes. I think Georgia just has too much of that SEC size, athleticism, and offensive ability for the Billikens to handle, who aren’t exactly entering the tournament in good form.

A 24-1 start to the season was followed by a 4-4 finish by St Louis, who did not have the same defensive prowess down the stretch. That’s bad news against a Mike White offense that’s 14th in adjusted efficiency, and can play a much better and sustained version of St Louis’ up-tempo style. The Billikens have an elite metrics profile, built up against a soft schedule and weak A-10, but the Bulldogs have the players and are more tested, so I’ll take them at this short price tonight.

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Houston -23.5 vs Idaho (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on truTV

I think Idaho is in big trouble here against a Houston team that will be seeing red in this game. The Cougars losing a tight one in the Big12 title game should have them extra motivated here, and when Kelvin Sampson and company are motivated against a low-major opponent, it gets ugly. Backing Houston in the non-conference is typically a safe bet, as is backing them as a highly seeded team in the dance.

The Cougars are just too good defensively and too physical for teams like Idaho to prepare adequately, and it usually ends up with them getting suffocated. This decade, Houston’s opening round opponent is averaging just 52.4 PPG, and when the Cougars are a 1 or 2 seed, they’re winning by an average 30-point margin. Idaho will be trying to jack up a lot of three’s here, but against an elite shooting defense that will also crush them in transition off long rebounds, so I love the Cougs to roll here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-14 (+2.65 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.