Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/19

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks Team Total Over 119.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on MSG

Everybody is torching the Spurs lately, and now it’s New York’s turn with their elite offense. San Antonio has allowed 124.3 PPG in the 15 games since the All-Star break when they lost Victor Wembanyama for the season. Included in that stretch are some truly average, below-average, and truly bad offensive teams that have had big nights against this defense. So the Knicks, even without Jalen Brunson, should have no trouble scoring against a team that can’t guard anything right now. New York is still a top-5 shooting team and the Spurs will have no answer for Karl-Anthony Towns, so look for a big night on the scoreboard for the visitor here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5 First Quarter @ Sacramento Kings (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

A two-game losing streak equates to a massive slump for the Cavaliers this season, but those losses haven’t been from the opening tip. Late game execution and holding leads have doomed Cleveland in their past two games, as the league’s best first quarter team continues to pay off regardless of the final score.

The Cavs have dropped 38 and 45 points in the first quarter the past two games, and a repeat of that isn’t out of the question against a Sacramento team that’s 28th in first quarter points allowed at home. The Kings are also just 23rd in average first quarter margin at home with a minus-1.5 mark this season. They’ll also be missing Domantas Sabonis tonight who might have been able to provide some answer to the offensive onslaught that’s coming from the Cavs here, so back an angry and dominant Cavs team early tonight.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Xavier/Texas Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:10 PM CT on truTV

This total has been rising and this is the highest point I would want to go with it, but I think a lot of points are possible here. Both offenses are playing at an elite level down the stretch of the season, and are top-50 in adjusted efficiency. I think the pace is also fast tonight with Xavier pushing it and Rodney Terry letting Texas play freely like they did in the SEC tournament.

I don’t think the Longhorns will be able to stop Xavier’s five-out offense that has dominated other drop-coverage defenses this season. But this should be a big stage for lottery pick Tre Johnson to show out for Texas, and the Musketeers really don’t have any good on-ball defenders. With both squads also excellent at getting to the free throw line, those easy points will pad the tougher ones to push this game over the total.

NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) UAB/St Joseph’s Over 156.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Yesterday’s NIT action proved the year-over-year trend of teams with any kind of offensive firepower and pace treating these first round games like open gym. This should be another example of that, and steam has been rocketing this total up as the market catches on. I still think this game gets into the 160’s though thanks to two offenses that can exploit what the opposing defense struggles with.

For St Joe’s that means firing away from three, as the Hawks are 37th nationally in three-point rate and shoot them at a high level on their home floor. UAB really struggles on the perimeter, ranked 291st in three-point percentage defense, so those shot should be dropping for the home squad. But St Joe’s really struggles with interior defense, and a Blazers offense that is almost entirely two-point focused behind Yaxel Lendeborg should feast down low. Neither team has any problem with playing up-tempo, and that’s the kind of game I see here with defenses getting burned by their biggest weaknesses.

NIT Tournament (0.75 Unit) North Alabama/Bradley Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

If you’re looking for points in the NIT, it’s a good idea to back two teams who are the best in the country at something on offense. That’s what we have in this matchup, as North Alabama comes in with the country’s lowest turnover rate so the Lions won’t be wasting any possessions here. Bradley meanwhile is the country’s best three-point shooting team, and getting an ASUN weakling on their own floor is a great spot to make it rain from deep.

The Braves are also 8th nationally in effective field goal rate, and have one of the most impressive offensive showings all year in dropping 118 against Indiana State two months ago. I think this is a great spot for the basic NIT first round principle to hold true, especially at a much more reachable total, so look for another over in this matchup.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +67.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.