Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/18

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz/Minnesota Timberwolves First Half Over 113 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

This number is just plain off for how the Wolves play, and who their opponent is tonight. This is far less than half of the full-game total that sits at 231.5 points, which books typically do because of the potential for overtime skewing the distribution. But if the Wolves find themselves in OT against the lowly, tanking Jazz, things are more dire than I thought.

Where the Wolves might be lagging is in the first half, where their defense has not been great in games like this. That was the case last night against a weak Suns offense, and to Utah’s credit they’re going to fire with no fear, but are 29th in points allowed before halftime. But the Wolves tend to get serious about defense in the second half, especially if they’re being challenged at Target Center. My sense though is the Wolves and Jazz both run a lot more early in this game, then slow down later, and that should lead to early points tonight.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Prairie View A&M +3.5 vs Lehigh (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on truTV

I think the wrong team might be favored here. In a matchup like this, books aren’t necessarily accounting for a team’s momentum, and Prairie View has plenty of it. Since the Panthers got healthy in mid-February they’ve been red hot, with their defense playing far better. Add in guard Tai’Reon Joseph also being able to contribute more and more while dealing with injury, and this is a team on the rise.

The Panthers can really shut down the three-point line and force Lehigh, a team that wants to shoot three’s, into uncomfortable interior looks against a compact defense. The Mountain Hawks aren’t able to take advantage of Prairie View’s biggest weakness on the glass, and will have trouble taking care of the ball here. I think defense reigns here, and this healthy version of Prairie View getting more than a full possession is definitely worth backing tonight.

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Miami-OH/SMU Over 163 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:15 PM CT on truTV

Miami finally meets a quality opponent, and I think the Redhawks have one option to try and compete against far superior athleticism. They have to bank on their shooting being hot enough to compensate for the success SMU is going to have against their weaker defense, especially down low. Miami has struggled to guard inside all season, and have never seen anything as dominant as SMU’s 7’2” center Samet Yigitoglu who should feast tonight.

Miami won’t want to try answering those easy buckets with two’s, but instead try to shoot the lights out against a vulnerable SMU defense. Miami got here on the back of elite shooting, and they’re still 5th nationally in effective field goal percentage along with 22nd from deep. That matches up well against SMU who allows the 14th-highest split of points to come via the three-ball, and should struggle against Miami’s pick-and-roll. I’m also anticipating an up-tempo game here as SMU likes to play in transition and Miami is 44th in adjusted tempo, so plenty of scoring should be coming in this First Four matchup.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Samet Yigitoglu Over 11 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Yigitoglu averaged 10.8 PPG on the season, so this strikes me as lazy oddsmaking given the situation. Miami will have no answer for him as their tallest rotation player is 6’9” and not a great defender. The interior has been a weakness for the Redhawks all season, and Yigitoglu averaged 11.9 PPG against non-conference opponents from lower leagues, so I think he dominates tonight.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Boopie Miller Over 20.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

If SMU doesn’t dominate inside with Yigitoglu, and even if they do, it will be very difficult for Miami to slow down Miller. He’s the best and most athletic guard Miami has seen all season, with the closest comp being Akron’s Tavari Johnson who went for 22 against them. With B.J. Edwards questionable tonight even more of the backcourt work goes to Miller, and he has 30-point game potential in this situation so I like his over here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-15 (+0.65 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.