Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/18

Locks

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) St Francis +4.5 vs Alabama St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on truTV

The fact that Saint Francis is in this field boggles the mind, but the wave of luck they’ve been riding to this point might not be done yet. The Red Flash won three straight overtime games to close the regular season, then won all three of their conference tournament games by exactly three points. They’ve been insanely lucky to have opponent after opponent short circuit to a large extent, plus go ice cold from beyond the arc.

If that happens again today with an Alabama State team that is extremely high-volume from long range, then they have a shot to keep the momentum rolling. Neither of these teams shoots it well, so I think it will be tough for either of them to build a lopsided margin on a neutral court, and I want more than a possession’s worth of points in my back pocket in that scenario.

NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) Chattanooga/Middle Tennessee Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

You have to feel for Chattanooga here, who saw a 12-game winning streak come to an end in the SoCon tournament. I think that makes them more likely to play fast and loose in the NIT here, and this team can score on anyone. The Mocs have elite three-point shooters and take a ton of shots from deep, which is a style that has given Middle Tennessee trouble all season.

The Blue Raiders have decent defensive metrics built up from facing weak C-USA offenses, but this is a different situation that should go how their games against other excellent shooting teams from outside the conference have gone. Middle Tennessee also likes to get up and down the floor, which they should be able to dictate on their home court, and I think Chattanooga goes along with that style. Given the quality of shooters on the floor and the history with early round NIT games, points should be coming in bunches here.

NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) St Louis @ Arkansas St -4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

What a disappointing season for Saint Louis, who had the pieces and style to win the A10 but never put it all together. This team is too reliant on three-point shooting, and just wasn’t good enough at it throughout the season. That overreliance on three’s will get them in trouble here against a team that has humbled some of the best three-point shooting squads in the country.

Arkansas State went in and beat Memphis in a true road game, only lost by 9 at Alabama, and took care of business at home against Akron. Those are all tournament teams that are among the elite three-point shooting teams in the country, but struggled against the Red Wolves and their perimeter defense that has the 13th-best three-point percentage allowed. Saint Louis sees their shooting drop precipitously on the road, and won’t be able to keep up with a fast-paced Arkansas State team without those dropping.

NIT Tournament (0.75 Unit) Wichita St/Oklahoma St Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This total took a ton of money on the over, and with good reason. You’ll never go broke blindly betting overs in the first round of the NIT, and a matchup like this is a great example of the style you’ll typically see. Both of these teams will play fast here, especially Oklahoma State who runs at the 15th-fastest adjusted tempo in the country. They finally get to face something other than a tough Big12 defense, and their games in the non-conference slate and against the weaker Big12 defenses have seen a lot of points.

A significant reason for that is the Cowboys being terrible on defense themselves, as they rank 304th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and 316th in two-point percentage allowed. That’s critical against a Wichita State team that will be happy to go along with the fast pace, and has one of the most two-point reliant offenses in the country. The Shockers can’t stop anything inside either, and the style I anticipate for this game is plenty of layups and free throws, so easy points from that equals an easy over on this total.

NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) UC Riverside/Santa Clara Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 10:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Again, early round games of the NIT are points fests as teams adopt an open gym style of play. This one should turn into a three-point contest as both Riverside and Santa Clara are extremely high-volume offenses from deep. Particularly Santa Clara, as the Broncos fire off the 17th-most three’s per game in the country, and hit them at the country’s 22nd-best percentage.

The interesting thing here is that we’ve already seen these teams square off this season, as Riverside was blown out 96-54 in Santa Clara back in November. The Highlanders were atrocious from the floor and from deep in that game and it still got to 160 points, so an improved Riverside offense should have a better day on the scoreboard here. Santa Clara has the firepower to replicate that early season score though, and I see an up-tempo game with plenty of three’s pushing this over the total.

NIT Tournament (0.75 Unit) CS Northridge/Stanford Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN2

One more NIT game tonight, one more swing at an over, and this one got a ton of sharp action as well. This game might really explode if Northridge gets Stanford to play at their pace, which is the 8th-fastest in the entire country. The Cardinal are much slower-paced in general, but a hair-on-fire team from the Big West has visited Palo Alto before, as Cal Poly beat them 97-90 on Thanksgiving weekend.

Northridge will bring a slightly different up-tempo game as they only want to score inside and in transition, and Stanford really struggles with allowing two-point production. But if coach Kyle Smith lets Stanford fire away from deep with their excellent shooters, they’ll be draining three’s all night against a Matadors squad allowing the 4th-most production from three in the country. CSUN also can’t keep their hands to themselves and allow the most free throw production in the country, so easy points are out there for both teams if they play the right way, which would send this well over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +64.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.