Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/17

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 221.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

The Wolves are going to need some St Patrick’s Day luck of the Irish in this game without Anthony Edwards, and possibly Naz Reid, but that should take a serious toll on the offense. Facing a good defensive team in the Suns won’t help, especially since the Wolves have struggled so much against them already.

Minnesota only managed 105 and 113 points in the two meetings so far, and Ant went for 40 in both of those games. This is also a matchup of one of the league's better under teams with Phoenix, and a Wolves squad that is 23-11 to the under at Target Center, so I’m just not able to see where the points come from tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat +4 @ Charlotte Hornets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Sun

The Heat are hot, finally losing a game on Saturday after reeling off 7 wins in a row. That was to the Magic, who seem to own them, but the Heat seem to own this Charlotte team with a 3-0 record in the season series. They’re all fairly convincing wins too, with the Heat covering all three matchups with a plus-48.5 total ATS margin.

News that Bam Adebayo is questionable for this game is concerning, but Miami was without him for one of those victories over the Hornets this season so I’m not terribly worried about it. And Charlotte is not in particularly good form, coming off a rough road trip and not scoring very well right now. This might just be one of those mismatches in coaching or scheme that gives Miami too much of an edge, and I’ll take the points in that case here.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Texas/NC St Over 157.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:15 PM CT on truTV

The committee typically tries to avoid having teams that already faced each other this season square off in the first round. But apparently that was unavoidable here, and the first meeting between these teams was a barnburner, putting 199 points on the board. That was out in Maui, in the 5th-place game, so defensive effort was not at its best, but it shows the offensive potential of these teams.

With NC State 20th and Texas 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency this season it’s no wonder they can produce a game like that, and I have to believe they can replicate at least some of that firepower here. Texas should be able to, as NC State is barely in the field thanks to a total collapse of defense over the final month-plus. But if the Wolfpack can harness their up-tempo style and three-point shooting, they’ll force Texas into the kind of game that sees a lot of points.

NIT Tournament (1 Unit) Davidson/Oklahoma St Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I will go to my grave hammering home the point that the first round of the NIT is a glorified scrimmage for all teams involved. The game is on short notice so there’s hardly any time to scout your opponent, and a lot of coaches just seem to roll the ball out there and say have fun. It happens year after year, and the market seems to have noticed, as all 16 of the first round games took money to the over.

This one should be one of the easier overs if Oklahoma State is able to dictate tempo on their home floor. They want to play with their hair on fire at 9th in adjusted tempo, while Davidson is actually one of the slower teams in the country. But Davidson hasn’t been able to slow down this style and level of offense, giving up 94 to Utah State, 90 to Kansas, and 91 to St Louis on the year. Both teams can shoot three’s, and if this turns into an up-tempo three-point contest, we’ll see a very high-scoring game.

NIT Tournament (1 Unit) UNLV/UC Irvine Over 152.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 10:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Again, to be clear, I will go to my grave with this belief on NIT games. I’m still stunned that every one of these opening round games were essentially lined to the KenPom projection, and every single one got bet to the over. I think this is another one that could go to the moon, as UC Irvine finally encounters a functional offense.

The Anteaters have lived a sheltered life all season in the Big West, as there aren’t any truly efficient offenses, just a couple of fast ones. That’s how they’ve built up an elite defensive metrics profile, plus the only good offense they faced in the non-conference was Belmont who put 84 on them. UNLV has scorers and they bring an up-tempo style that has caused high-scoring games for Irvine in conference play, so this one screams glorified scrimmage with lots of points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 18-15 (+1.00 Units) – Recommend: Tail 

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.