Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/14

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics Team Total Over 125.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on NBA TV

Just like any team Washington plays lately, the Celtics should score in every which way in this game. This tanking stretch the Wizards are on of 2-13 straight up their past 15 games has seen them allow at least this total 10 times. And they haven’t really been playing all that scary of offenses, yet they’ve still given up 128.2 PPG in that stretch.

That whole not facing the scary offensive teams thing ends here, as Boston comes in with the second-highest rated offense in the league. And don’t let their very slow tempo scare you off, they haven’t had any problems with running it up against Washington in two meetings, scoring 136 and 146 points. The Wizards just make it too easy with their atrocious defense and turnover problems, so I think the Celtics hang another massive number.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Neemias Queta Over 18.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Centers kill Washington the most, and that was before Bam went off against them the other day. Queta should get more opportunity with Boston shorthanded at center, and he’s gone over this number with 21 and 27 in the previous meetings despite not a lot of minutes. Amazingly, Queta shot 14-of-16 in those games so he can get whatever he wants at the rim, creating a high floor for reaching this prop total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St John’s +3.5 vs UConn (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FOX

I thought I had a good spot to go against UConn last night, but maybe the Huskies are on a mission here. They’ll need to be in order to get past this St John’s team, who will be out for revenge today after the last meeting produced one of the weirder results I’ve ever seen in college basketball.

The Red Storm missed 24 consecutive shots in that game, and I don’t think that will happen again today. If St John’s can dictate tempo in what is essentially a home game for them, then they can get the Huskies out of their comfort zone which is how they won the first meeting. And with a relatively advantageous number here of a full possession, I’ll take the points with Rick Pitino who is 19-2 ATS in his past 21 Big East tournament games.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Prairie View A&M/Southern Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ESPNU

These are two pretty rough offenses, with both ranked outside the top-250 for adjusted efficiency this season, so I can see why the numbers guys are pushing this total down. But it’s gone too far in my opinion, especially with two teams who know how to score against each other matching up. The regular season saw meetings of 174 and 169 points, that were tight games to the end.

If we get another of those, then this game has the opportunity to go over a discounted total. These offenses might not be great, but they do know how to rack up points from the free throw line. Getting to the charity stripe is a big part of both offenses, and fortunately these are also two of the most foul-prone teams in the country. They also both play up-tempo, so a repeat of that style with lots of easy points at the line should send this over tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-16 (+0.60 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.