Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/13

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Golden State Warriors Over 223.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

This total has dropped too far, and I never believed there should be steam to the under in the first place. It’s strange betting action when you have the team with the second-best over record in the league, Golden State, facing a Wolves squad that has the league’s second-best over record in road games. That trend has played out within the season series as well, with 247 points in the lone meeting in San Francisco, but 196 and 191 points in the games at Target Center.

I think a big part of that split is the Wolves ranking 24th in three-point defense on the road, so the team that fires the most three’s in the league should put up plenty on a defense that enters this game in very poor form. But if the Wolves are going to bounce back from this ugly 3-game stretch, hanging a big number on a shorthanded Warriors team would be a good opportunity, and that should help carry this game over.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Chicago Bulls/LA Clippers Over 234.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on CHSN

The spread is too big in this game, even for the form LA is in right now, but it’s really tough to see this game as anything but an easy over. The Bulls come in on no rest after getting run up and down the floor by the Lakers last night, while the Clippers are back to being on another level. LA has found their groove again, and while it’s probably just a matter of time until they fall out of that groove, this 7-game stretch of 127.9 PPG has been fun.

Notably, the Clippers have been running it up against opponents who are tanking and/or have no ability on defense. That’s Chicago’s m.o., as they have no plans to defend anyone but will still push the tempo. And the rest disparity really matters here, as the Bulls are an NBA-best 6-1 to the over when they’re at a rest disadvantage. The Clippers meanwhile punish tired opponents, going 12-5 to the over with a rest advantage which is second-best in the league. Chicago creating extra possessions for this red-hot offense can only have one result, and that’s lots of points tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Florida -6 First Half vs Kentucky (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN

Kentucky is set to run out of gas at some point after two games in the SEC tournament that have been nail-biters. Having to scramble for wins on consecutive days and then face arguably the best team in the country is a tough ask, and I don’t think they’ll handle it well. To Kentucky’s credit, they’ve done well against Florida in both of the regular season meetings, keeping it within double digits both times.

So that makes the double-digit spread in this game very unattractive, but the first halves of those games were a different story. Florida rolled to halftime leads of 9 and 17 points before the Wildcats played better in the second half, which is counterintuitive considering how good Florida has been after halftime the past couple of months. Far be it for me to argue with those results though, and I think the Gators make a statement out of the gates against this worn-out Wildcats squad.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Wisconsin/Illinois Over 156.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:30 PM CT on BTN

Yesterday I pointed out how much fun this Wisconsin team can be when they get rolling offensively, and that’s exactly what happened. It took a minute for them to find the range, but the game erupted when they did. That can definitely happen again this afternoon with these two teams squaring off, as I don’t think there’s a better offensive matchup anywhere on the schedule today.

Wisconsin comes in now 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency, which is impressive, but not compared to what this Illinois team has done on the season. The best offense in the country doesn’t come from Florida, or Duke, or Michigan, but from this Illini squad that is first in adjusted offensive efficiency. They can score on anyone, inside or out, and I don’t think a struggling Badgers defense will hold them down. Not in a revenge spot after Wisconsin won on the road in OT during the regular season, so look for an up-tempo game here with incredibly efficient offense that sends it over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Tennessee +1.5 vs Vanderbilt (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

I don’t understand this line one bit, and maybe it’s my skepticism of Vanderbilt all season, but they should not be the favorite here. The Commodores simply haven’t been very good since their 16-0 start to the season ended, only beating mediocre SEC teams since then. Yes, that included this Tennessee team just last week to close the regular season, but it’s critical to note that the Volunteers were without Nate Ament that day.

As their most important player, him being on the court is what got them a win at Vandy in late February, and him healing up for the conference tournament should make a big difference again today. Rick Barnes knows how to find success in this tournament regardless of whether it carries over to the big dance, and I think this fading Commodores team takes another step back today.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Georgetown +14.5 vs UConn (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on FS1

UConn exorcised some demons yesterday with a demolition of a Xavier team they match up extremely well against. That 25-point win creates a great opportunity for the Huskies to get overinflated, and lay too big of a number against a team that for whatever reason they don’t match up well against. They’ve had two chances against Georgetown, both times laying big numbers of 11.5 on the road and 16.5 at home, and both times it’s come down to the wire with 2 and 4-point wins.

Splitting the difference of those spreads tonight is lazy oddsmaking which happens in these short turnaround situations, plus books are counting on people seeing that big UConn win last night. The Hoyas are playing with nothing to lose here, and with confidence after knocking off Villanova last night. So if you’re trusting UConn, with one of the worst ATS marks in the country, to keep the momentum in this spot, best of luck to you but I’m taking the points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Florida A&M +3.5 vs Southern (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN+

The SWAC tournament is just to see who can go to Dayton for a chance to win a game that gets them a date to get murdered by Duke or Michigan, but it can still produce interesting matchups. This is one of them, and one where books are making an adjustment but not a big enough one. Florida A&M has been dogs against Southern twice this season, by 4.5 at home and 8.5 on the road, but won outright in convincing fashion.

If you comb through the details of those games you realize that the Rattlers are just a better team, and earned those wins by using their great three-point defense to make Southern one-dimensional. A&M finished the season strong and has momentum here against a team they match up very well against. I think the wrong team is favored, but I’ll take the full possession worth of points here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 20-18 (-1.70 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.