Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/12

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Washington/Wisconsin Over 156.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:30 PM CT on BTN

This should be a little afternoon delight of points, points, and more points, as I don’t see either team being able to stop the other. Nobody can stop Wisconsin when they’re on, as the shooting this squad has makes them extremely dangerous in March if they can find the range in neutral court sites. That’s also made them one of the better over teams this season, along with 7-3 to the over in their past 10 games.

The Badgers are up to 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency, have no fear from deep, and don’t turn it over so most of their possessions are productive. Washington’s defense isn’t terrible, but it didn’t hold up against Wisky in the first meeting less than 2 weeks ago. The Huskies should be able to score though, as defense is the big weakness holding the Badgers back, and I think we see plenty of buckets in this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UNLV/Utah St Over 156.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Same total, same situation in this game. Both regular season meetings went over this total, with UNLV actually having Utah State’s number and taking both games pretty convincingly. The Rebels can fill it up, as Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn is a great scoring guard who wasn’t even outrageously productive in those two games. UNLV also plays fast and can get to the free throw line, two things that frustrate Utah State and their style.

But the Aggies are out for double revenge here, and don’t want to take an opening round loss in the conference tournament just in case their resume for Sunday isn’t as solid as needed. This offense is one of the most efficient and balanced in the country, able to score at all three levels. The defense is worrisome though, and gave up 86.0 PPG in their last 4 games away from home. This is technically a home game for UNLV although it doesn’t usually play out that way in reality, but that makes it a road game for the Aggies and I think a struggling defense leads to lots of points here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) South Carolina St/Norfolk St Over 144.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Books are finally learning that these teams can’t stop anything against each other, but I don’t think the adjustment is enough. The first meeting had a total set at 139.5 and they proceeded to put up 171 points. So an adjustment to 141.5 was made for the rematch and these teams hung another 161 points. This is a further adjustment, and this game is on a neutral floor, but I don’t think that will matter for how these teams play.

South Carolina State brings one of the worst defenses in the country to this game, ranked 342nd in adjusted efficiency and allowing the 3rd-shortest possession length in the country. Teams are getting straight to the rim against their 339th-ranked two-point defense, and that’s exactly what Norfolk loves to do as a team that hardly takes any three’s. Both teams want to live inside and get to the free throw line, and both have serious fouling issues. That’s a perfect recipe in a tournament game to get to the over, and I think they do again pretty easily.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Florida St/Duke Over 149.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’ll start by saying I don’t think Duke should be favored by 17 points in this game, not after losing two starters ahead of the ACC Tournament. But I’m even more surprised to see the total for this game get bet to the under, because those two lost starters in Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba are much more valuable defensively to the Blue Devils. They’ll miss Foster’s ability out on the wing in this matchup, as I think their biggest vulnerability might show back up tonight.

Duke’s rise to the best adjusted efficiency defense this season came with one asterisk and that was guarding the three-point line. They still give up the 10th-highest point distribution via the three in the country, and here comes a hot FSU offense that plays fast and launches a ton of three’s. The Seminoles gave Duke trouble from deep in the first meeting, and they definitely found the range in the Spectrum Center against Cal last night with 46% shooting from deep. I think that helps make this more of a back-and-forth game which leads to a lot of points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UConn Team Total Over 84 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

I would not have wanted to participate in a Dan Hurley practice this week. First they get embarrassed by a bad Marquette team, then he gets ejected, then he finds out his brother is getting fired by ASU. It’s just been a bad week, and I think Hurley and the Huskies take it out on poor Xavier tonight. I would caution against laying the big number of points with UConn here as they’re one of the worst ATS teams in the country.

But they can score when they want to, they should get significant positive regression off a terrible shooting performance at Marquette, and this Xavier defense has been totally unable to slow them down. Both meetings saw UConn score in the 90’s as the Huskies shot 57% and 53% from the floor against a Musketeers defense that’s 289th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Add in the good amount of fire UConn should be playing with here, and I think they hang another big number in a statement game.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) CS Northridge Team Total Over 74.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The two fastest teams in the country live out in the Big West, as this Northridge team is second only to their league mate Cal Poly in adjusted tempo. UC San Diego has very different experiences with those squads, holding down Poly three times this season including last night. But the Tritons haven’t been able to solve this Northridge squad, as CSUN has put up 84 and 81 points on them this season, both convincing wins by the Matadors.

I’m probably going to have to sprinkle the moneyline with CSUN as a result, but I like this team total play even more. Both regular season meetings saw UCSD unable to slow the Northridge pace, keep them out of the lane, or off the free throw line. That’s a formula that’s easily replicated in a tournament environment, so look for CSUN to clear this discounted, underdog team total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-20 (-4.40 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.