Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/11

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Minnesota vs Rutgers (+5.5; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

This number is on the move in favor of Rutgers, as the Scarlet Knights look to keep improving as the season probably ends for them at this tournament. They’ve been looking good in the last few games though, and have been a solid underdog this season at 13-9 ATS, so it’s not too surprising that they’re taking money against the Gophers.

With the spread moving inside the metrics site projections, that’s a key sign this time of year that the favorite is in for a fight. I think Rutgers gives it to them in a revenge spot for a blowout loss at The Barn a few weeks ago. These are two of the slower-paced teams in the country with plenty of offensive issues, and at a neutral site with tournament stakes, I’ll take the points on the right side of a key number here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) SMU/Louisville Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:30 PM CT on ESPN

If this one turns out to be the kind of up-tempo affair that these teams are capable of, then this total is going to get destroyed. They’ve already done it once this year, combining for 180 points in their lone regular season meeting. That’s what is possible when you have two teams who are top-40 for fastest offensive possession squaring off, and I don’t think either changes their ways today.

There are more than just stylistic reasons to expect plenty of scoring too, starting with the advantage Louisville has from beyond the arc. The Cardinals launch the 3rd-most three’s per game in the country, and SMU allows the 10th-highest split of opponent points to come from beyond the arc. I’m very skeptical of Louisville’s defense though, as they don’t play like a top-30 unit by adjusted efficiency when they’re not at the Yum Center, allowing 10.9 PPG more away from home. I’ll count this neutral site in that, especially against a potent offense like SMU, so look for fireworks this afternoon.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Delaware St vs Morgan St -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Yeah, I’ll lay a short price against the literal worst offense in the country. That’s what Delaware State brings to the table, ranked dead last in adjusted offensive efficiency, dead last in effective field goal percentage, and dead last in two-point percentage which is the bulk of their offensive style. That’s how you score the fewest points in the country and win 7 games on the year, so don’t expect much out of the Hornets tonight.

Now Morgan State is no great team, actually ranked as the 14th-worst overall by KenPom, but they’ve proven they can beat Delaware State, and have vastly improved down the stretch of the season. Importantly, they’re 5-1 ATS when favored this season, and won all of those games straight up which is essentially what I’m asking for on this short number. Metrics sites have this fairly tight but expect the Bears to cover such a short spread, and I do too against such a horrific offense.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Morgan State Team Total Over 73.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

That improvement down the stretch of the season for Morgan State is mostly based on their offense coming around, fueled by playing more up-tempo. Generating those extra possessions will be key against a slower Delaware State team, but they’ve done it successfully in both meetings, putting up 80 and 82 points. The Bears are 10-4 over this team total in conference play, averaging 76.5 PPG, and I think they get over it again tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Tarleton St/Abilene Christian First Half Under 64.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN+

There’s only one way for these teams to get into a high-scoring affair, and it’s a transition track meet. Both teams want to play inside the arc, with Tarleton dead last in three’s per game and Abilene 339th in attempts. But they both defend the inside very well, so both offenses are going straight into the strength of the opposing defense. They also disrupt possessions better than almost anyone, ranked 1st and 3rd nationally in turnovers forced per game, plus they’re both in the bottom-15 nationally for coughing up turnovers. That’s going to lead to a lot of disjointed offense, and if they avoid lots of transition layups, this will be a slow start just like 2 of the 3 meetings this season.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Cal Poly/UC San Diego Under 158.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m taking an under with Cal Poly, which feels like taking your life in your hands with the Mustangs ranked first in adjusted tempo this season. This team plays with its hair on fire and loves to hoist away from deep, which is the exact opposite recipe you want as an under bettor. But UC San Diego has the ability to slow them down, take away the three-point line to some extent, and keep this game in their preferred style.

They’ve done that twice to Poly this season, keeping both meetings well under the total and creating two of the three lowest-scoring Big West games for the Mustangs on the year. With this neutral site impacting shooting and both teams having a reasonable shot at this wide open tournament if they buckle down, I think defense plays a bigger role again tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-21 (-4.50 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.