Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/10

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Julius Randle Over 30.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on NBC

Randle has not been himself since the All-Star break, which is frustrating since he went into the break on such a high note dropping 41 points on Portland. But the 8 games since have seen him average just 25.6 PRA, down considerably from his season-long number of 33.7, but tonight might be different.

Randle always seems to get up for playing the team that drafted him, so facing the Lakers tonight should give him a jolt of energy. It was very early in the season, but the first two meetings with LA saw Randle hang 41 and 44 PRA, plus there’s the example of last season’s playoff series. So even though he’s just 1-7 over this PRA total since the break, I’ll look for a breakout performance in a game he should get up for.

NBA (1 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Portland Trail Blazers First Half Over 110.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on KJZZ

This total is looking at how Charlotte finishes games, not how they start them. The Hornets remain one of the best under teams in the league, although it should be noted they’re much more of a home under team. On the road can be different, and visiting a Portland team that has the second-best over record in home games should change how they play.

First halves have been much more up-tempo and high-scoring for Charlotte though going back several weeks now, and a perfect example is Sunday night when the first half in Phoenix went for 118 points but the game went well under the total. I think the Hornets stick to this style that I’ve observed, and the Blazers can certainly fill it up with Deni Avdija back, so I think we see another big first half that clears a number I see as very discounted.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bulls/Golden State Warriors Over 227.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on CHSN

This is a pretty low total for a Bulls game, as they’re actively trying to lose games and will let the opposing offense get whatever they want. That includes from beyond the arc, where Chicago ranks 27th in three-point percentage allowed and 28th in road games. The team with by far the league’s highest three-point rate in Golden State should thrive in that matchup, leading to plenty of points.

But the Bulls will definitely push tempo here against a Warriors team on no rest, so I think Chicago can add plenty of scoring themselves. I had to double check, but Golden State has moved into the second-best over record in the league, including 11-6 to the over when they’re at a rest disadvantage, so I see another coming here on what’s a pretty reasonable total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Mercyhurst +6.5 vs Long Island (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This title game in the Northeast Conference doesn’t need to be played. Thanks to dumb NCAA rules, Mercyhurst hasn’t been a D1 program long enough to be postseason eligible, so Long Island is the de facto conference champion and has already punched their ticket for next week. That makes this Mercyhurst’s Super Bowl, and I think the Lakers come to play.

They’ve already given LIU fits this season, beating them at home and only losing by 2 points on the road in the regular season meetings. The Lakers are extremely dedicated to scoring inside the arc, and that’s where LIU is vulnerable as the Sharks give up one of the highest splits of two-point production in the country. I’m sure LIU would love to claim a tournament title themselves, but this game just means more to one team in my opinion, and I think they keep it close tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas St/BYU Over 165.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The nightmare season for Kansas State is almost over, one meaningless game before the players can all hit the transfer portal and the program can hit the reset button. I don’t see much effort out of the Wildcats tonight, certainly not on the defensive end of the court, and that’s going to spell trouble against BYU.

Even without Richie Saunders, this BYU team has plenty of scoring potential, and shouldn’t have any trouble against a K-State team that over the past two weeks has ranked 294th in effective field goal defense. Surprisingly though, BYU has been even worse lately, spending those same two weeks ranked 310th in effective field goal defense. So neither team is able to generate stops right now, likely allowing AJ Dybantsa and PJ Haggerty to go wild. Plus, at this point BYU is playing for seeding and should look to run it up if they can, leading to plenty of points tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Oklahoma St/Colorado Over 162.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN+

Neither of these teams has a shot at the big dance, so let’s just get out and have some fun in this opening round game. Both teams are great at getting up and down the floor, and the pace should be ridiculous tonight if Oklahoma State is able to establish it. The Cowboys are 9th nationally in adjusted tempo, and have become even more up-tempo and perimeter oriented with the loss of Parsa Fallah down low.

Colorado doesn’t quite play at that pace on their own, but isn’t afraid of opening it up. The Buffaloes have been pretty good lately with Bangot Dak playing extremely well, and this should be an opportunity for him to go off against a thin Oklahoma State frontcourt. But Colorado should get torched from beyond the arc, as they rank 341st in three-point percentage defense and will face a barrage of three’s tonight. If those are connecting in an up-tempo game, this total is well within reach.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Idaho/Eastern Washington Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN2

It’s already the semifinals so there aren’t many opportunities left, but I’m committed to the idea that there’s no defense being played in the Big Sky tournament. That was obvious last night as both quarterfinal games went well over the total, and now Eastern Washington has to play this game on no rest after a high-possessions affair. Despite being a red-hot team, E-Wash is not playing good defense right now, ranked 325th in effective field goal defense.

The Eagles also struggle to guard outside the arc, and Idaho will be launching a ton of three’s all game long. I’ve also noticed Eastern Washington having a fouling problem, so that poor defense will also allow points to come from the free-throw line. The Vandals defense should have the same trouble with stopping three’s, and gave up 81 points to E-Wash in both regular season meetings. Those were very high-scoring games that should translate to more of the same in the tournament, especially with late foul game points, and I think this total is far too low as a result.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-19 (-2.90 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.