Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/09

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Denver Nuggets/OKC Thunder Over 243 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ABC

This total is one that started high and stayed high, not even getting close to pushing below the threshold of 240 points. With good reason too, as these teams just keep scoring throughout their games and seem to ramp it up as the game goes along. Particularly OKC who has been red hot lately, scoring 131.9 PPG the past 8 games where they’ve had their full lineup available.

This Denver defense is not going to be able to slow that down, but only hope to keep pace behind Nikola Jokic coming off his 30-20-20 masterpiece. He and SGA should be showing out as MVP frontrunners here, and keep in mind these teams play again tomorrow so this should be a more free-flowing game where I see a ton of points.

NBA (1 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/New Orleans Pelicans Over 238.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

This total has been rocketing up from the opener, and I really don’t think we’re even close to the upper limit of what these teams can do. The Memphis defense is in a bad place right now, there’s no two ways about it as they’ve allowed 124.3 PPG the past 10 games, even allowing surprising totals to some of the most offensively challenged teams in the league.

They’ve even allowed 119.7 PPG to the Pelicans in three meetings this season as those games have averaged 250.0 total points. I see another here, because as bad as the Grizzlies defense has been, New Orleans is 29th in defensive efficiency and will allow Memphis to push tempo here. Keep in mind that the top defender for both teams is out, so the line movement here is fully justified.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Furman/Chattanooga Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:00 PM CT on ESPNU

I think this number is factoring in neutral court and semifinal stakes too much, as these teams have the potential to blow past such a moderate total. The regular season meetings saw 146 and 157 points, but both games left meat on the bone as far as potential points. Both Chattanooga and Furman are extremely high-volume three-point offenses, but they took turns struggling from deep in those previous meetings this year.

They seem to have found the range at the SoCon tournament, particularly Furman who dropped 95 yesterday on 58.6% shooting from deep, while Chattanooga took until the second half to wake up. But with both offenses clicking and the likelihood of the foul game being taken to the extreme in a tight game, I think this one gets over the number today.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Pepperdine Team Total Over 69.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Ok, I guess I was dead wrong about Pepperdine, who took a 14-point deficit in their opening round game and turned it into a 13-point win over Portland. They haven’t looked back since, upsetting Oregon State yesterday and looking to do more damage tonight. While another outright upset as 15-point underdogs here would be some serious March Madness, what that big spread does is drive down their team total to a very reachable level.

They already got to 80 on the road at Santa Clara in the only regular season meeting, and aren’t exactly facing an elite defense here. Santa Clara can be exploited on the inside which is where the Waves like to attack, and this is also likely to be an up-tempo game with both squads in the top-90 for adjusted tempo. What you have to like about Pepperdine here is they’ll be playing with house money, and I think that gets them over this team total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) St Thomas/Omaha Over 149.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This total has been coming down, and I think it has something to do with the fact that Omaha doesn’t actually need this win. The Mavericks are already in the dance due to St Thomas being held back by one of the dumbest NCAA rules excluding them from postseason play as they haven’t been D1 long enough. What I think that does is turn this game into more of an exhibition style affair, with less defense and more tempo.

In that case I would use the regular season meetings as a benchmark for the scoring floor instead of the ceiling, and with those games seeing 167 and 179 points, this one could get wild. Those games got to that level of scoring because these are elite shooting teams, especially the Tommies who are 3rd nationally in effective field goal rate. Both teams play relatively up-tempo already and the defenses are weak to say the least, plus they’ve both shot it well at the Sanford Center, so look for this to get over the discounted total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Northern Arizona/Montana Over 146 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

These teams aren’t going to fly up and down the floor, but they are going to shoot it well and it’s an efficiency-based over that I’m counting on here. The regular season meetings saw 157 and 163 points thanks to that very formula, as these teams shot the lights out in both games. Their defenses are very vulnerable to good shooting, as Montana ranks 265th and Northern Arizona 286th in effective field goal defense.

That’s why these are great over teams, combining for a 37-19 record to the over this season. Montana in particular is over fuel thanks to being an elite shooting team but allowing a ton of easy buckets. History also tells us that the Big Sky tournament gets wild, and teams are not shy about taking the late foul game to extremes, so I agree with metrics projections that have this game in the 150’s.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +70.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.