Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/08

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks -2.5 @ LA Lakers (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

Put simply: the Lakers don’t beat good teams. Put another way, the Lakers have two wins this calendar year against teams who are currently above play-in status. Put even another way, the Lakers are just 2-7 ATS with a minus-8.1 average ATS margin as a home underdog, so when they get disrespected in the market it’s for good reason. The Knicks are a respectable 14-6 straight up as a road favorite, and this short price is essentially just asking them to win. New York has woken up lately after a rough patch, and I think they take down the fraudulent bullies that are the LA Lakers.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Phoenix Suns Under 218.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Peacock

This is a matchup of the 3rd and 4th-best under teams in the league, so even though the number has been crashing, I’ll still take a shot here that this one is a slog. Phoenix is also tied for the best under percentage in their home games this season with a 23-11 record to the under at Mortgage Matchup Center. We should see a slow tempo here as both the Hornets and Suns are bottom-5 in pace this season, and they don’t shoot well either. Charlotte is 23rd and Phoenix 27th in field goal percentage this season, so a slow-paced game with plenty of missed shots can only lead me to the under tonight.

NBA/NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) 3-Team Moneyline Parlay (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs (-210): 7:00 PM CT on NBC

The Spurs are clearly the better team in the matchup, and I don’t think it’s close with how far apart both offenses are from each other. Houston has struggled to produce offensively against some soft competition lately, while the Spurs have been tearing up pretty much everyone they see. The Rockets try to compensate for their basic offense on the boards, but the Spurs can neutralize that with their excellent rebounding ability. That’s been the key in the season series with the Spurs taking 2 of 3 in convincing fashion, and I think they make a statement on national TV tonight.

Boston University @ Navy (-320): 1:00 PM CT on CBSSN

The Patriot League tournament was always going to be the Navy Invitational, as the Midshipmen are head and shoulders above the rest of this weak league. With the advantage of home court for the higher seeds in this tournament, Navy gets to play the whole tournament in Annapolis where they’re 13-1 straight up this season including 10-0 in conference games. This Boston team is built on three-point volume and shooting percentage, but Navy is 10th nationally in three-point percentage defense so they know how to neutralize this team. I think they do and march on to the conference title game.

Pacific vs Santa Clara (-700):  10:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This is the free space that takes the parlay from laying juice to getting it back instead, so yeah, we’re including it. This is an absolute must-roll game for Santa Clara, who probably needs a run to the WCC title game if they want at-large consideration from the committee. That starts in this layup of a quarterfinal game against a Pacific team they’ve taken out by 15 and 16 points this season. The Broncos are surprisingly strong on both ends of the court this season, and Pacific simply isn’t on their level, so Santa Clara moves on and finishes up this parlay.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Queens/Central Arkansas Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN2

A market move of over 6 points down from the opening total has just gotten out of control in my opinion, and it’s time to punch back. Too much is being made of this being a title game where things tighten up both offensively and defensively with a ticket for the dance at stake. But these teams are who they are: up-tempo squads that want to shoot a lot of three’s. Not to mention a couple of defenses that are 298th and 325th in effective field goal percentage allowed. These teams went for 163 and 190 in the regular season meetings, so add in desperation late fouls and this game can easily fly over the discounted total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Georgia Southern/Marshall Over 168.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN+

Neutral site, conference semifinal, don’t care, those angles aren’t going to stop these teams from being who they are. That would be ridiculously fast-paced and addicted to the three-ball, with both squads playing a very similar style. That has gotten them into some crazy games against each other this season, with 188 and 181 points scored in the regular season meetings.

Both teams sit outside the top-300 in adjusted defensive efficiency as well, so it’s not like they’re going to learn defense overnight. And the biggest angle here is Georgia Southern’s legs, as this will be their 5th game in 5 days, all of which have been extremely high-possession affairs. Marshall should run them up and down the floor as they have fresh legs in this crazy Sun Belt format, so this one could get out of hand in the points department.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-23 (-5.45 Units) – Recommend: Definitely Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.