Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/08

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks -2 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI

Monitor the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard before gametime as they’re obviously critical to Milwaukee’s performance, but both are considered likely to play so I’m not too worried. With them in the lineup, the Bucks have the firepower to pull away early from an Orlando team that’s usually a good fade candidate in the first quarter.

That’s due to the Magic offense being so stagnant, as they’re down to 28th in offensive rating, 29th in true shooting percentage, and thus 26th in first quarter scoring. Milwaukee is 4th in first quarter scoring at home and 5th in average margin, so look for them to jump on a weak offensive opponent early in this game.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Stanford @ Louisville -6.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Massive credit needs to be given to Pat Kelsey for taking Louisville from a laughingstock to ACC contender in one year. There are haves and have-nots in this conference, and the Cardinals are clearly in the haves category, looking to make another statement today in a game that impacts seeding for them. Stanford sort of straddles that have/have-not line, but what they don’t have is a good track record on the eastern half of the country.

Stanford is just 1-7 in conference road games so far, and they own a minus-5.5 average margin in road first halves this season, putting them 289th in the country. Louisville has been elite in first halves, ranked 11th overall in average margin, and it’s even more impressive in home ACC games. They’ve never trailed at half and racked up a plus-10.5 first half margin in conference home games, going 6-3 against this particular number, and that includes hosting Duke, Clemson, and UNC. A much weaker Stanford team should be easy pickings for this sneaky-elite Louisville squad to build a big first half lead against.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Winthrop/UNC Asheville Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:30 PM CT on ESPN+

If the past meetings of these squads is any indication, this should be a barn-burner of a game. Both teams have no problem getting up and down the floor, but Winthrop takes it to the next level with the country’s 5th-fastest adjusted tempo.

They’ve been the driver of the two regular season meetings getting to 177 and 193 points, so the tournament stakes and neutral venue discount is really taking a lot off this total. I don’t see Winthrop slowing down at all since they have a distinct advantage in playing that style today. Their ability to get downhill and draw fouls is huge against an Asheville team that is 317th in foul rate.

The Bulldogs also have a problem with allowing very short possessions on defense as they give up good early looks and get burned in transition. That should translate to a lot of easy points for Winthrop, but the Eagles obviously can’t stop Asheville either as they gave up 93 and 90 to them this season. Big South teams seem to be having an easy time scoring so far at this neutral site, so look for this game to clear the big number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Hampshire @ Vermont -14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Don’t look now, but Vermont is back. It just wasn’t the America East without them, as the only time in the past decade they haven’t won this league is when UMBC snuck past them and we all remember what happened next. The Catamounts are red hot, with 9 straight wins and covers to close the regular season, and now get to face their border rival in a true home game.

Vermont has already dispatched UNH by 20 in both meetings this season, and getting the true home game for the conference tournament is key since UNH is 4-12 ATS with a minus-18.4 average margin on the road this season. The Wildcats already have 5 losses by at least this margin in conference road games, and never play well in Burlington. The Catamounts should roll here behind an elite defense locking down the country’s 9th-worst offense by adjusted efficiency, so expect another blowout.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Air Force @ Utah St -22 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on MW Network

Utah State ran into a couple of desperate team buzzsaws on their road trip to Boise and Colorado State, suffering a couple of blowout losses. So they need this game as a reset, and I think they take full advantage of a bad opponent. They’ve done this before, returning home after tough road losses to beat Nevada by 21 and San Jose by 48, so the Aggies know how to bounce back. Air Force will not be tough competition for them, as they already rolled the Falcons by 29 on the road back in January. Air Force does not have the offense to keep pace with an angry Aggies squad, so I’m expecting a very lopsided game here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Providence @ Xavier -6.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on FS1

Xavier is fulling understanding the assignment as they look to solidify their position with the committee, reeling off 6 straight wins that have been blowouts from the opening tip. The Musketeers are crushing opponents in the first half during this win streak, averaging a plus-14 average margin thanks to scoring 44.0 points.

Included in this streak is a 45-30 halftime lead over Providence on the road, so they know how to beat up on this Friars team. Providence is limping to the finish line thanks to a rash of key injuries, and have not been competitive even against poor competition their past 4 games, averaging an 11.8 point halftime deficit. Going into the Cintas Center where it’s extremely tough to play, especially against a highly motivated Xavier squad, should see the Friars get run out early once again.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Duke/North Carolina First Half Over 74.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on ESPN

I think the full-game total of 157.5 is fair in this one, as most metrics sites project it at 157 and the first meeting landed right on 157 points. But I think this first half total is just too low for a few reasons, not the least of which is Duke’s elite offense that averages 40.7 first half points and actually scores more on the road. Duke dropped 47 in the first half of the previous meeting, and these teams only combined for 72 thanks to UNC being ice cold in Cameron.

But since then the Tar Heels have resembled what we’ve come to expect from a UNC offense, taking and making far more three’s which happens to be the best way to attack Duke’s defense. The Heels have averaged 43.9 first half points per game since Duke held them to just 25, and I see that resurgence continuing on their home floor. It’s one of the best rivalries in sports, and I see two heavyweights acting like it and trading plenty of big buckets for a high-scoring start tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Sacramento St/Weber St Over 131.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+

These teams are slow, with Sacramento State ranked 277th and Weber State 275th in adjusted tempo. These teams have bad offenses, with Sacramento State all the way down at 351st and Weber State 278th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They don’t shoot well either, but when they get together, something just clicks. The regular season meetings got to 168 and 157 points, two of the highest-scoring games for both teams.

Yet books just can’t help themselves in expecting these squads to play to their projections and have hung another low total for them. I’m expecting the Hornets and Wildcats to continue to play the way they have against each other though, with high-possession games that featured hot shooting. Add in the conference tournament situation where the foul game starts early in a tightly-lined game, and this very low total is very reachable.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UC Riverside Team Total Over 82.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m convinced that Fullerton has fully given up on the season, and that means there’s only this game and the opening round of the Big West tournament left to fade them. You don’t give up back-to-back 100-pieces if you have any inclination to try on defense, and that’s what the Titans have done in the past week, along with averaging 91.8 points allowed their past 6 games.

Riverside probably won’t get to that triple-digit level, but this is still a discounted number, especially considering the Highlanders have vastly improved on offense down the stretch. They’re a high-volume three-point offense that gets to face a Fullerton team that’s 327th in three-point production allowed. Those three’s dropping has allowed Riverside to average 87.8 PPG the past 5 games, and a team that won’t put forth any defensive effort should be another easy victim.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) SIU Edwardsville vs SE Missouri St -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

It’s the first conference title game of the season, and it’s one that I think won’t be particularly close. I’ll allow that it’s difficult to win 3 games in a season against the same opponent, but the way SE Missouri State has dominated Edwardsville in two games can’t be ignored. Wins by 15 and 16 points show too much consistency to expect this to fall within one possession, regardless of championship game stakes.

Edwardsville’s tough interior defense has been exposed in both meetings by the athletic guards for SEMO, and remember it’s guard play that makes all the difference in games like this in March. There will likely be a tightening of these teams tonight so I’m not expecting another double-digit Redhawks win, but they’re the better team that knows how to exploit their opponent and should come away with the OVC title here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Utah @ BYU -6.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPNU

There’s too much disparity in the home/road splits for both teams to ignore in this game, and it should help BYU exact their revenge tonight. BYU lost a one-point overtime affair at Utah back in mid-January, and it’s fair to say that a lot has changed for the Cougars since. They’re playing like one of the best teams in the country, and when it comes to winning the first half they’re right up among the best, ranking 4th in average first half margin in home games at plus-13.5 points.

Utah is good on their own floor, but when they go on the road things get rough, averaging a minus-6.9 first half margin. And in Big12 play it gets far worse, with a minus-10.1 average first half margin. That’s not terribly surprising since the Utes rank dead last in the country in away-from-home strength on Haslametrics, and typically leave their shooting at home. If you can’t make jump shots against this BYU defense you’ll get buried on the other end by the Cougars’ elite shooting, and with revenge on their mind I think that’s exactly what happens right away tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +71.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.