Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/07

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Denver Nuggets First Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Everything in this game obviously hinges on Nikola Jokic being good to go, so monitor his status for any setbacks. But after he played and seemed fine on Wednesday I’d expect him to go here, and the numbers on this game suggest he’s playing. That game on Wednesday was another in the long string of wild first quarters in Denver, as the Nuggets and Kings combined for 71 points after a quarter, which is just how things go in Nuggets home games. The past 10 home games for the Nuggets have seen 65.2 first quarter points on average, and against Phoenix this season they’ve averaged 64.7 so I’m continuing to ride this simple trend.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Dayton @ VCU -8.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

The last home game for VCU this season means the last chance to expect another blowout. The Rams have an average scoring margin of plus-23 points on their home floor this season, good for 6th in the country with 4 of the teams in front of them likely to be 1-seeds in the dance. And in conference home games that margin is still a ridiculous plus-22.8, and no A10 visitor has been any closer than 12 points.

Dayton will look to be the exception, and they do have talent that was supposed to make them the kings of this league, but their power rating has fallen significantly over the course of the season. This is the toughest true road game the Flyers have had all season, and they already lost to VCU at home by 5 a month ago. So factor in the VCU home court advantage and the fact that the Rams need blowouts in case of a stumble in the A10 tournament, and I’m seeing another double-digit runaway game tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+120; Odds via Fanduel)

Citadel vs VMI (-240): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+

The Citadel has gone 0-18 in conference play this season, and the SoCon tournament is not the place where they’re going to turn it around. The Bulldogs in fact have just one D1 win all season, and while some games have been close, they’re just never able to pull it out in the end. VMI took care of business against them twice, and while the Keydets are not a good basketball team, they’ve made a habit of being predictable this season against the upper and lower-tier teams in the SoCon. Citadel just can’t shoot well enough, especially from three where they’re 352nd in the country, to take advantage of VMI’s porous defense and that should cost them again tonight as their season comes to an end.

Longwood vs Winthrop (-175): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN+

These teams trended in opposite directions down the stretch of the season, with Longwood dropping 7 of 9 while Winthrop won 8 of their last 9 games. Winthrop’s tempo that is 5th-fastest in the country is tough for most teams to handle as the Eagles are so good at playing downhill, getting to the rim and to the free throw line where they lead the country in free throw attempts. But it’s particularly difficult for a team like Longwood to contend with as the Lancers are dead last in the country for two-point percentage defense. That’s been the key in the regular season meetings where Winthrop rolled by 19 and 26 points, and will be important on a neutral floor, so I like Winthrop to advance tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Portland -1.5 vs Pepperdine (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Somebody a lot smarter and more plugged in than me needs to enlighten me as to why this number is so short. Comically short in my opinion considering Portland routed Pepperdine by 20 points in both meetings this season, including just last week. The problem might be projections from metric sites sticking too much to their numbers, and books relying too heavily on those projections for these neutral court games.

The first meeting this season had Pepperdine projected as a 10-point favorite at home to Portland, and after a 20-point drubbing that caused a shift to them being a 1-point favorite at Portland. Well that obviously didn’t work out for the Waves, but the change of venue again here messes with the numbers and makes this a tight spread again. I’m just not seeing it as Portland has the better team and coach in my opinion, and obviously the results are speaking for themselves so I’ll lay the short number here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +70.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.