Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/06

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat/Charlotte Hornets First Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Sun

It’s impossible for me to ignore that these teams have played twice this season, with the first quarters of those games going for 86 and 71 points. One of the meetings even had Norman Powell sidelined like he will be tonight, so that’s not even a concern for me here. Also, both of those meetings were in Miami where the Heat are allowing 1.6 fewer first quarter points than on the road, and scoring 1.9 fewer.

The Heat lead the league in first quarter scoring, but Charlotte is close behind at 3rd in the league, and the Hornets will no doubt be looking for revenge here. The first halves and first quarters of Charlotte games have been where to strike with overs lately, and given the matchup history here it’s definitely a good spot to jump in on what I see as a discounted total.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/Boston Celtics Under 223.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Jayson Tatum and Cooper Flagg are both expected to return to the lineup for this game tonight, but don’t let that trick you into thinking points are coming here. You have the best under team in the league with Boston at 40-22, plus a Dallas team that’s 35-27 to the under as well. That was on display a month ago as these teams finished with 210 points despite massive games from Flagg and Jaylen Brown. Adding a not fully healthy Tatum to the mix, who will be rusty and on a minutes restriction, doesn’t make me think a lot more scoring is coming. Remember that the Mavs are tanking and the Celtics are built on defense, so this total is just too high tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) High Point First Half Team Total Over 45.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on ESPN+

Good for Gardner-Webb, they stole a win in the conference tournament opener on Wednesday, but it’s time for them to turn into a pumpkin. The Runnin’ Bulldogs are one of the worst teams in the whole country, with a defense that sits 360th in adjusted efficiency. They’ve been getting crushed all season, and particularly by High Point who is head and shoulders above the rest of the Big South this season.

The two regular season meetings saw High Point hang 53 and 48 points before halftime, and I think they do more of the same here. The Panthers will want to get this game over with quickly and grab some rest, as they expect it to be the first of three days in a row, so look for a big early push and them clearing this halftime total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Bellarmine +7.5 vs Central Arkansas (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 AM CT on ESPN+

You’re not going to find a worse defense anywhere than what Bellarmine brings to the table, as the Knights are 365th in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. The Knights stick to zone defense because of it, and that has actually worked well for them in this matchup against second-seeded Central Arkansas. Bellarmine beat the Bears at home and lost a tightly contested one on the road thanks to that zone slowing down UCA’s best player.

Camren Hunter really struggled in both games as they forced him to shoot over the top of the zone, while their excellent shooting kept them in the game. Bellarmine can really shoot, ranked 5th in effective field goal percentage and 13th in three-point percentage this season. Central Arkansas really struggles on the perimeter, allowing the 3rd-highest split of points to come via the three-ball in the country. With Bellarmine already having a game under their belt at VyStar Arena, I think they can keep it close here thanks to those key matchup edges.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Drake/Belmont Under 153.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Arch Madness unders, you can set your watch to them. I wish this total hadn’t crashed from the opener, but I still have to take a shot here given how drastic the scoring problems have been in this tournament. Coming into yesterday’s opening round action, 10 straight games in the MVC tournament had gone under the total, and then unders went 3-0 in the first round this year.

The problem isn’t so much unfamiliar sightlines as it is rims that are tightened as far as they’ll go, so you’d better swish it or forget it. That’s bad news for two jump-shooting teams like these who are heavily reliant on three-point production. Drake’s game yesterday against a Southern Illinois team that is the most reliant on two-point production in the country couldn’t even sniff the posted total, so this matchup isn’t likely to produce much scoring either.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Lipscomb Team Total Over 77.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:30 PM CT on ESPN+

Lipscomb has owned this matchup on the year, putting up 84 and 86 points in two comfortable wins over Florida Gulf Coast in the regular season. The total in this game is down considerably from those regular season meetings, which also depresses Lipscomb’s team total, and I simply don’t agree with that change.

I don’t see the neutral site impacting things to that degree, and eventually Lipscomb is going to have an avalanche of points given their fast pace and three-point shooting ability. FGCU really struggles to guard the three and they haven’t done well against the up-tempo ASUN teams this season. And with a fairly short point spread here, foul game can come into play and push Lipscomb’s total up whether they’re leading or trailing, so I think they clear this lower number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UT Martin vs Tennessee St -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPNU

I’m surprised this number is so short since these teams are moving in very opposite directions down the stretch of the season. UT Martin was looking like they might be the class of the OVC this season just a month ago, but a 2-5 record to close the regular season really did them in. Their offense cratered in this past month, and it all culminated in a 25-point home loss to Tennessee State in the season finale.

This Tennessee State team went the exact opposite direction, going 9-2 to close the year and earn the top seed in this tournament. I don’t give any credit to revenge angles here, as this is a bad matchup for Martin since their sputtering offense can’t keep up with a fast-paced Tigers squad. At less than a full possession, I’ll back the tournament favorite to advance against a team they’ve consistently dominated this season.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Northern Iowa/Illinois St Under 123.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN+

Let’s get another Arch Madness under in here. It’s a ridiculously low number, but it’s also a game that features one of the slowest, most defensive-minded teams in the country with Northern Iowa. The Panthers put that defense on display in the second half last night after getting caught napping early, and should be able to carry it over here. UNI brings the country’s 3rd-slowest pace of play, and an elite shooting defense that can pack the middle of the floor here.

They’ll let Illinois State try to shoot from deep on these hard rims, and the Redbirds having their first game tonight puts them at an even further disadvantage. One of the regular season meetings only went for 113 total points so these teams know how to clamp down defensively on each other, and this venue should factor heavily into keeping tonight’s game low-scoring as well.

Degenerates

World Baseball Classic Nicaragua/Dominican Republic Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS2

This is a first, as I can’t say I’ve ever touted a WBC game on this forum. But the situation here is too wild to ignore, as I don’t know how any teams are going to get outs against this lineup for the Dominican. Just look at the big names in the top-7 of the order:

Fernando Tatis Jr

Ketel Marte

Juan Soto

Vladimir Guerrero Jr

Manny Machado

Junior Caminero

Julio Rodriguez

This team has an absolutely elite hitter batting 7th, which blows my mind, and makes me think this team is liable to clear the game’s total on their own. Pitchers are limited in this format so it’s not like Nicaragua can throw their best arm the whole game, and I have to believe we’ll see fireworks in this one.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-20 (-3.40 Units) – Recommend: Consider Fading

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.