Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/06

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) NY Knicks @ LA Lakers -1.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

I was very surprised to see this game open with just a 2.5 point spread, and apparently so were sharps as early money drove it up several points so I’m going to concentrate on the derivatives here. What might be underappreciated in this run for the Lakers where they’ve soared up the standings is their dominance early in games.

Winning 17 of 20 and going 15-5 ATS is incredible, but I’m drilling down to the first quarters where they’ve gone 16-4 against this number with a plus-9 average margin. And only half of that sample is with Luka Doncic on the team, who should return tonight along with Austin Reaves. The Lakers went to MSG and put it on the Knicks before the Luka trade, so they know how to dominate this team that always seems to get pushed around by upper-tier opponents, and should early again tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UMKC vs Omaha -2.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

If Omaha is paying any attention to this point spread they should feel seriously disrespected. The top seed in the tournament laying less than a possession to a team they beat handily in both meetings this season almost feels trappy. But smart money has been pushing this number up from the opener of 1.5 which was egregious, and through the KenPom projections so the Mavericks look even more like the right side. Wins by 19 at home and 12 on the road over the Kangaroos prove that Omaha is just a bad matchup for them, and the third time will not be the charm even on a neutral floor.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UT Martin +2 First Half vs Little Rock (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Little Rock is not a first half team, preferring instead to make late runs so this could be a good live-betting opportunity to get in on the Trojans later in the game. But early on I think UT Martin has the advantage against an opponent ranked 248th in average first half margin. Martin already has a game under their belt last night to get acclimated to the sightlines on this neutral floor, which showed as they surged late in that game.

That’s a very important factor for the Skyhawks as such a high-volume three-point offense, and continuing to find the range early in this one will certainly help. Little Rock gives up a lot of three-point production too, so I’m expecting Martin to produce from deep in this game. That was the key in the regular season meetings when Martin led by 10 at halftime on their own floor, and only trailed by a point on the road. They went on to lose both after second half surges by the Trojans, but I think they can replicate that early success tonight and I’ll take the points here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Cal Poly Team Total Over 89.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is a sky-high number, but one that Cal Poly is uniquely suited to reach. You have to understand the situation here, as they face a Fullerton team that has quit on the season. The Titans have just one conference win and have allowed this many points in 6 Big West games already, including Saturday when the juggernaut that is UCSD put 100 on them, the most they’ve given up all year.

The team that has scored the second-most points on CSF this season? Well that’d be Poly, who got 98 on the board 3 weeks ago. The Mustangs are playing their final home game here and should look to get out and run second-fastest pace, launch a ton of three’s as usual, and an enjoy themselves in blowing out the one Big West team they know they can name their score against.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Long Beach St @ UC San Diego -23.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Once again, I’m begging the committee to get an ESPN+ subscription, stay up late, and watch this truly elite team that I’m loving. The Tritons are an absolute freight train, especially at home where all but 2 of their games have seen them roll by 20-plus points. They’ve also turned into a bettor’s best friend, owning the top ATS record in the country at 23-5, plus the second-best ATS margin and overall margin of victory. Their overall margin of victory being just 3.5 points behind Duke is impressive company to be in, which is another thing the committee better take note of.

But UCSD does not seem like they’re taking any chances, knowing that they have a scarce number of opportunities to make statements, and another should be coming here. The Tritons already rolled LBSU by 26 on the road this season, and it’s a bad matchup for Beach. They have the country’s 12th-worst three-point percentage defense and are up against an elite three-point shooting team that attempts the 11th-most three’s in the country. Those have been dropping at an incredible rate lately and should again tonight, so I smell another blowout brewing in San Diego.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +69.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.