Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/05

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Detroit Pistons/San Antonio Spurs Under 228.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

NBA Finals preview part two? The first meeting was a good one, and if it was any indication, these teams are far more focused on the defensive end of the floor. That game finished with 217 points as both teams, who are ranked top-3 in the league for defensive efficiency, showed why they can lock anyone down.

San Antonio has really clamped down lately, allowing just 105.8 PPG since the All-Star break, but they find themselves in a classic Malinsky Special here after a long road trip. That tends to impact offense more than defense, so the elite Pistons defense should be able to slow the Spurs in a revenge spot for them. This is a 4-point adjustment from the total that was far too high for the first meeting, but I don’t think it came down enough for the kind of game I see unfolding tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers/Denver Nuggets Over 240.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video

This should be a completely different brand of basketball than Spurs/Pistons, as two teams with a lot of defensive issues take the floor. I’ve been shocked at how bad the Nuggets defense has been since the All-Star break, particularly in defending the perimeter. And the Lakers are breaking down defensively with LeBron showing his age and Luka showing his attitude, so I don’t have confidence in them to slow the league’s best overall offense.

This is actually a matchup of the two best shooting teams in the league, while both defenses sit bottom-10 in rating and efficiency. That’s how the Nuggets have gotten to the best over record in the league, while the Lakers aren’t too far behind, and I see another tonight even at this high number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Loyola-MD/Colgate Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is a mispriced total, plain and simple, almost as if the books thought this game was happening on a neutral court. If that was the case, with strange sightlines for both teams, I could be on board with this as a reasonable number, but these squads have proven it’s not. With 164 and 166 regulation points in the two meetings this season, the Raiders and Greyhounds have gotten up and down the floor with highly efficient shooting, crushing the total in both games.

That’s likely to continue here as neither defense is able to stop what the opposing offense excels at, especially Loyola who sits 333rd in overall defensive efficiency and 351st in two-point percentage defense. The Greyhounds should throw everything they have at Colgate though, and only a 6.5 point spread suggests we could get foul-game points late to pad scoring, so I really like the over here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Pepperdine/Portland Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Metrics sites have this a couple of points lower, but they’re not accounting for the situation here. There’s no quantifying Pepperdine’s attitude down the stretch of the season, with the Waves hitting the eff-it button defensively. That has resulted in 10 straight overs in their games, and I think another can be found here in a game where they have nothing to lose.

Pepperdine has actually taken down Portland in both meetings this season, which couldn’t be further apart stylistically as the first totaled 130 and the second 182 points. The second meeting is more important to focus on though, as that was the road game for Pepperdine and they’ve been far worse defensively away from home this season. A neutral court game here in Vegas can definitely impact shooting to some extent, but these are not good defenses and Portland has been horrible at defending the three, so I see points coming here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Evansville First Half Team Total Under 25 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN+

Arch Madness kicks off today and I just know Northern Iowa is in a bad mood having to play an opening round game. The Panthers are live to win this tournament thanks to their elite defense that is 22nd nationally in adjusted efficiency, and is 3rd in three-point percentage defense. Several close games haven’t gone their way in conference play, otherwise they’d be holding a top seed for this event.

I think they take it out on poor Evansville by clamping down defensively, which they’ve already done to them this season. Evansville only managed 18 and 21 first half points in the regular season meetings, and this neutral court game where both teams are going to play very slowly should depress their scoring again. The possessions won’t be there and the offense simply isn’t good enough for the Purple Aces to score effectively against a motivated UNI defense, so they’ll look very pathetic again to start this game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-19 (-3.00 Units) – Recommend: Consider Fading

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.