Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/05

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 116.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

The Wolves being on no rest with travel, and having to travel out of the blizzard in Minnesota last night, does not create an ideal spot to back them. But it’s Charlotte, who teams are running over, around, and through without much effort so I have to find some way to fade the Hornets here. What I think the situational spot creates is points, as the Wolves are 7-4 to the over on no rest and 8-4 to the over when they are at a rest disadvantage. But I’m not ready to expect Charlotte to do their part necessarily, so I’ll isolate Minnesota for plenty of scoring. With the Hornets allowing 120.0 PPG since the All-Star break, this Wolves offense that has its full complement of offensive weapons should put up a big number tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

The Cavaliers have not been performing to their usual first quarter standards lately, with the 25-3 deficit in Boston being a glaring example. A combination of letdown spots and resting stars in the two games since has caused Cleveland to lose those first quarters, but I expect a turnaround tonight. They won’t want a repeat of the last time they were on national TV in Boston, and a shorthanded Miami team should be a good one to victimize.

The Heat are pretty solid in first quarters themselves, but are too depleted to compete with a Cavs team that will be at full strength tonight. Roster construction and availability didn’t matter in the first two meetings this season, both in Miami, where the Cavs led by 4 and 10 after a quarter. So being back at home where they’re so dominant should allow Cleveland to step on this weakened Heat team right away and make a statement.

NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder -3 First Quarter @ Memphis Grizzlies (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

The ESPN doubleheader features the two best first quarter teams in the league, and I’m backing both of them. The Thunder are the better first quarter team in road games which sets up nicely here, especially with their history against Memphis this season. OKC has led by 3 and 8 after a quarter in the two meetings with the Grizzlies, and they’ll be catching them tonight without Jaren Jackson and possibly Ja Morant. Memphis has real trouble stopping anything in the first quarter of games, particularly at home, so without their best defender I think OKC pulls away early tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UT Martin/Tennessee Tech First Half Under 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

These teams are not separated by much, as the 1.5 point spread today and two regular season meetings that went to overtime would indicate. I think that makes for a tight, lower-scoring start to this first round game in the OVC tournament, and a lot of smart money has been coming in on the under for this off-the-radar game. Just so I can avoid the potential of a third meeting going to overtime, I’m going to focus on the first half here.

Both meetings saw slow starts, with the first halves only reaching 62 and 58 points, which is about what I’d expect from them tonight. With this game at a neutral site, that will impact shooting sightlines which should limit both teams and their high-volume three-point shooting. And these are not good offenses to begin with, ranked 299th and 280th in adjusted efficiency, so count on plenty of misses to keep the first half low scoring.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson -3.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Fairleigh Dickinson is not a good basketball team, ranked 317th in KenPom. They have 6 double-digit wins this season against D1 teams: 2 against Wagner (348th in KenPom), 2 against Chicago State (361st in KenPom), and 2 against this Stonehill squad that’s only one spot behind them in the rankings. FDU does one thing very well though, and it explains those two easy wins and covers against the Skyhawks.

That’s three-point defense as the Knights rank 12th nationally in three-point percentage allowed, and they held Stonehill to just 22.5% from beyond the arc in both meetings combined. Stonehill being a team that relies heavily on the three-ball puts them at a big disadvantage as they really don’t have much of an interior offense. I think that allows FDU to pull away again tonight, especially with the advantage of home court, and this number being the exact same as the previous meeting in Hackensack is just lazy odds-making.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Xavier/Butler First Half Over 73.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I think this is a dangerous spot for Xavier after they thrashed Creighton for their fifth straight win. That streak includes a comfortable win over this Butler team who will be out for revenge and is playing with nothing to lose. That first meeting stayed well under the full-game total despite 79 points before halftime, and tonight’s total opening several points higher than the previous game and still taking over money should tell you what you need to know. Points are coming, and I think this first half number is highly discounted for two underrated offenses. The three’s will be flying and both teams will excel at getting to the free throw line, so I see a repeat of that first clash two weeks ago.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Gardner-Webb First Half Team Total Over 38.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+

I thought this number was a mistake when I first saw it. Gardner-Webb has put on a scoring clinic in both meetings with SC-Upstate this season, dropping 50 and 56 points before halftime on their way to totals of 96 and 97 points. That’s not particularly surprising given that Upstate is dead last, 364th, in first half points allowed this season. The Bulldogs did it to them in different ways in each game too, once going nuclear from deep and the other making everything from two.

I’d recommend sticking with the two-point route since Upstate is 360th in two-point percentage defense and that’s usually where Gardner-Webb lives. That also helps neutralize the unfamiliar sightlines issue at this neutral court, which I’m not too worried about anyway given the consistency the Bulldogs have shown against the Spartans. The second half of both meetings slowed down somewhat, so focus on the first half here for GWU to go wild again.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Tennessee/Ole Miss First Half Under 65.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I have to play the dual situational spots impacting this game that show up so frequently in college basketball. The first impacts Tennessee, and that’s the classic letdown after a wild, buzzer-beater win over Alabama on Saturday. The Volunteers are already prone to slow starts, only averaging 31.8 first half points on the road this season, and the first halves of their SEC road games averaging 58.4 points.

The second situational spot should be hitting Ole Miss here, and that’s the slow start on senior night. The emotions and distraction from typical pre-game routine often causes the home team to come out flat. It doesn’t help the Rebels’ case that they’re facing the country’s top defense by adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed. Tennessee is a defense-first team and that travels, as they’re allowing the 6th-fewest first half points on the road in the country. Through a combination of situations and elite defense, I see this game getting off to a very slow start.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +68.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.