Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/04

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/LA Lakers Under 229.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on Spectrum Sports

I couldn’t believe this total when it opened at 234 points, and while it crashed quickly from those heights I still like the under here. Whoever set this total initially just isn’t factoring in the surprising way the Lakers have played since adding Luka Doncic. A player that everyone thinks of as a defensive liability has not caused those kinds of issues for LA, as they’re 7-0 to the under since the All-Star break and allowing just 101.0 PPG. I don’t see them having any trouble continuing that against a Pelicans team that’s 25th in offensive rating, and another stellar defensive performance should keep this well under the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Coastal Carolina +2.5 vs Southern Miss (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I think the wrong team might be favored in this game, but I’ll take the short number of points with Coastal here. Neither of these teams is going to play any further past when they get bounced from the Sun Belt tournament, but my sense is that Southern Miss is more eager to get it over with. The Golden Eagles have dropped 8 in a row to close the season, including the last 4 all at home so this team seems broken.

That includes a loss at home to Coastal who showed more fight down the stretch after an abysmal 12-game conference losing streak. Both of these teams are bad, there’s no two ways about it, but the Chanticleers have a definitive edge offensively and in momentum, so I’ll back them to put USM out of their misery.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Rutgers/Purdue Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock

These teams met almost two months ago with a total that closed at 148.5 and only managed 118 points. But today that total is several points higher across the market, so the number is telling you everything you need to know. Points should be coming here between two offenses that have elite ceilings and two defenses that have had plenty of struggles.

That first meeting saw the Boilermakers and Scarlet Knights combine for 23.4% shooting from deep, something that is not going to happen again. Rutgers also got minimal production from their two lottery picks, Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, who have played much better since and face a Purdue defense that can’t stop anything inside the arc. With Rutgers running a much faster, free-flowing style over the past month, plus Purdue continuing to shoot lights out at home, I agree with the adjustment and see plenty of scoring here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Lehigh @ Loyola-MD -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

These Patriot League bottom-feeders are bad teams, but this should not be essentially a pick-em spread. There’s a clear and proven advantage held by Loyola in this game after they swept the season series against Lehigh. The Patriot tournament uses campus sites, so that puts this game on Loyola’s home floor where they’ll have a significant advantage. Home court matters a lot this time of year, and Lehigh’s one strength of three-point shooting sees a big drop when they hit the road. I’m ignoring any trap line nonsense and sticking with the home team that’s proven themselves in this matchup.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Holy Cross/Lafayette Over 137.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

These teams have also met twice this season, with both games getting over this total albeit one of them needing overtime. The biggest factor impacting scoring in this matchup is three-point shooting by Holy Cross, who is 18th in three-point percentage this season and 15th in the percentage of their points they get via the three.

But the Crusaders missed 36 three’s in the two regular season meetings combined, so any kind of mean reversion for them against Lafayette’s 249th-ranked three-point defense will translate to more scoring. Another key might be free throws, as neither of these teams gets much production at all from the charity stripe. But tournament stakes where the foul game starts early can add points that wouldn’t normally be there for either team, so that should add up to getting over this fairly low total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Detroit Mercy/Northern Kentucky Under 140.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I was very surprised to see this total tick up a couple of points because I think this game will be an ugly, defensive slog. Detroit brings one of the country’s worst offenses into this game, ranked 350th in both adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage. They’re also a very one-dimensional offense focused inside the arc, so they can’t take advantage of Northern Kentucky’s biggest weakness of three-point defense. That was the case in both meetings this season, which only got to 133 and 125 points thanks to poor shooting and slow pace. I don’t see any reason to expect a change today, so this one should stay under the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) IU Indianapolis/Wright St Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

These teams love to fire away from deep, and this third meeting of the season should be no different from the other two. It was raining three’s in both regular season meetings that saw 164 and 175 points, with the 175-point affair coming just this past Saturday. This IU-Indy team has no fear about launching from long range as the Jaguars are 5th nationally in the percentage of their points that come from beyond the arc.

They’re actually a good three-point shooting team as well, but not as good as Wright State who is 6th nationally in three-point percentage this season. The three-point effectiveness actually puts both teams in the top-140 for adjusted offensive efficiency, but both defenses are atrocious. Indy is the 3rd-worst defense by adjusted efficiency in the country while Wright State is 307th, and neither can guard the three. That should turn this game into another three-point contest with plenty of free throws as well in a tournament setting, so I see this going well over the total.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Wright State First Half Team Total Over 39.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

The Raiders have jumped on IU-Indy right away in both meetings this season, putting up 44 first half points on the road and 51 in the meeting at home. The Horizon uses campus sites for these games so this is another home game for Wright State. They’re an elite shooting team at home, looking to make a bounce back statement after losing at Indy on Saturday, and facing a Jaguars team that is 341st in first half points allowed, so I see plenty out of them early and often tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) BYU @ Iowa St -5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Let’s pump the brakes on BYU a little bit. The Cougars have reeled off 6 wins in a row, but only one was against an opponent that’s playing decent basketball and it was courtesy of the worst phantom foul call I’ve ever seen. A couple of the other headline-grabbing wins came in Provo which is a very tough place to play, but this team has significant issues when it hits the road.

Namely on defense as their effective field goal percentage defense drops to 339th when they’re away from home. Hilton Magic is going to make life difficult with that kind of defense, and a finally healthy Cyclones squad reminded everyone what they’re capable of over the weekend by blowing out Arizona. I think they make another statement here behind an insane Hilton crowd and leverage their average first half margin in home games that is still 5th in the country.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +68.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.