Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/02

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Phoenix Suns Over 230.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

This game has seen nothing but over money come in to push the total up significantly from the opener. It makes plenty of sense considering these teams have gotten to 234 and 237 points in their meetings this season. And let’s just be honest here about the Wolves defense lately – it hasn’t been good. They’ve allowed 120.0 PPG since coming back from the All-Star break, and haven’t exactly faced a gauntlet of elite offenses.

Phoenix seems to be finding themselves offensively in the same period, and should get Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen back tonight, so I think they’ll score plenty. But I love what this Minnesota offense can do when they’re clicking and will get an angry Anthony Edwards back from suspension to face a Suns team that’s 27th in defensive rating. The Wolves have reached 120 points in both meetings, and doing that again tonight makes this total very reachable regardless of how much steam it has taken.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Boston Celtics First Quarter Over 60 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ABC

With the Celtics fresh off their embarrassing collapse against Cleveland on Friday, I’d expect them to come out with some fire in this one. They should be able to score like crazy against this Denver team that’s dead last in first quarter points allowed. But the Nuggets also lead the NBA in first quarter scoring, so Boston’s defense will be tested here, especially if Denver pushes tempo. The shooting ability of both these teams should be on full display in this game, and I would not be surprised to see a three-point contest break out which should push this first quarter over the total.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on NBA TV

Let’s give credit to Portland for winning their past four games. Now let’s take some of that credit away for those games being against Charlotte, Utah, Washington, and Brooklyn, four of the six worst records in the league. The Blazers simply are not built to compete against the best of the best, and that’s what Cleveland is proving themselves to be, especially after their comeback in Boston.

And the Cavs just shred teams early in games, owning the best average first quarter margin while Portland ranks 26th in that category. As far as I’m concerned this is a heavily discounted number with Cleveland averaging a plus-6.4 average first quarter margin in home games, and I see them flexing those muscles here in light of their almost disastrous start Friday night.

NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder -4.5 First Quarter @ San Antonio Spurs (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’m going from the league’s best home first quarter team in Cleveland to the best road first quarter team with OKC, and see a similarly discounted number. ESPN had big plans for this game before the season, expecting Wemby to square off against Chet Holmgren in a battle of skinny aliens. But San Antonio has been less than competitive without their star, last night’s narrow win over the shorthanded Grizzlies notwithstanding.

But that was a long, tiring game for the Spurs who now have to play on no rest with travel against one of the league’s best teams. Not only do the Thunder lead the league in first quarter margin on the road, they also have the best margin of victory overall when they hold a rest advantage over their opponent. The Spurs meanwhile are 26th in average first quarter margin at home, so look for OKC to take advantage of the situational spot and build a big early lead.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Illinois +3.5 @ Michigan (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 2:45 PM CT on CBS

Michigan might be one of the luckiest, most overrated teams in the whole country. The Wolverines keep winning by the skin of their teeth, posting a minus-12 point differential in their past 11 games where they’ve gone 9-2. I’m keeping them in mind as a fade candidate for the big dance, and also going against them today. They can’t keep getting away with this amount of luck and buzzer-beaters going their way, so catching a full possession with a team that has won the past 8 meetings is good value in my book.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) North Florida/Austin Peay Over 158.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

It’s conference tournament time already as the ASUN gets the madness kicked off tonight. This should be a sneaky-good game between two teams who are always playing single-digit games against each other. Speaking of recent meetings, the past 5 have averaged 178.0 points, so these squads love to get out and run against each other. You often see that kind of free-flowing style in opening round games like this between two low seeds, and having a North Florida team with the 3rd-best over record in the country involved certainly helps as well.

That over record is thanks to their 9th-fastest tempo, 348th-ranked defense that stops nothing inside, and the country’s highest level of three-point production. Austin Peay doesn’t necessarily play with that style often, but North Florida has always seemed to bring it out of them including the other meeting this season that saw 186 points. With this being a tight spread and conference tournament environment, the foul game starts earlier and gets more desperate which always boosts scoring, so look for these teams to get another meeting over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +67.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.