Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 03/01

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Denver Nuggets Over 238.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

This total is quickly rising everywhere, so grab this lower number at Fanduel if you can, but I’m with the market in the expectation of lots of points here. Putting the league’s best over team in the Nuggets on their home floor, against a Wolves squad that has the second-best road over record, and by far the highest plus/minus to the total in road games, simply has to equal shootout.

It’s telling that the highest-scoring meeting so far this season actually came at Target Center, with Anthony Edwards sidelined, so the scoring potential here is significant. These are two top-5 shooting teams both overall and from deep, with Denver boasting the best offense in the league and I don’t think it’s close. And with no Aaron Gordon the Nuggets turn into an over machine, hitting at about 75% this season, and I’m expecting another today.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Jaden McDaniels Over 15.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Jaden might have to pick up his scoring today with Julius Randle dealing with a back issue and questionable for this game. That has not been a problem for him against Denver this season, with games of 25, 15, and 21 points, all with Randle making a significant contribution. The Nuggets really don’t have anyone with the length to slow him down, so look for another good game from a guy who averaged 16.2 PPG in February.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Tim Hardaway Jr Over 11.5 Points (+100; Odds via DraftKings)

With no Aaron Gordon, the rotation for Denver shortens and gives Hardaway plenty of minutes. He’s made the most of his opportunities against the Wolves this season, scoring 20, 23, and 19 in the three meetings so far. That’s impressive production, and something the primary bench contributor can replicate today.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Ryan Rollins Over 19.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 2:30 PM CT on CHSN

Rollins has had a couple of down games against much better defenses, but this is an opportunity for him to get back to what he’s been doing for the past month. The Bulls are not making any effort to slow anyone down right now, so the scoring chances will be there for Rollins who has become a top option for this current form of the Bucks roster. He’s already carved up Chicago this season in every meeting, crossing the 20-point mark all three games including the two where Giannis played. This sets up as a high-scoring game with plenty of points to go around the box score, and with Milwaukee actually trying, look for Rollins to get his today.

NBA (0.75 Unit) DeAndre Ayton Alt Over 8.5 Rebounds (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 8:30 PM CT on Spectrum Sports Net

I couldn’t believe the standard number for Ayton’s rebound prop of 7.5 tonight, and I also couldn’t stomach the heavy juice applied to it. So I’ll go to the alt market for bets that I really like in this spot despite how much heat Ayton has gotten in the public sphere lately. Notice I’m only looking at rebounds and not points or a stat combo, because at least the man can clean the glass, and he’ll face next to no resistance tonight.

The Kings are extremely thin up front and the talent level is iffy at best, so they’ve been allowing opposing frontcourts to dominate. That’s really Ayton and nothing else for the Lakers, and he’s taken advantage in three meetings with Sacramento this season, logging 15, 11, and 13 boards, so look for another Windex game from him tonight. I’m also going up the alt line ladder here, so add these if you have access to alt markets:

(0.5 Unit): DeAndre Ayton Alt Over 9.5 Rebounds (+190)

(0.25 Unit): DeAndre Ayton Alt Over 10.5 Rebounds (+300)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-13 (-0.22 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.