Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/01

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 @ Dallas Mavericks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI

Dallas is just in a bad place right now, and I don’t think they have the horses to keep up with this Milwaukee team despite the Bucks running so hot and cold. Milwaukee lacks consistency to say the least, but the matchup here is one they should be able to exploit. The Mavericks have no shooting outside of Kyrie and Klay, plus they’re extremely thin up front which will make containing Giannis Antetokounmpo very difficult. All Luka trade jokes aside, Dallas is just not in a position to compete with upper-tier teams right now, and if the Bucks can’t win and cover a short number against them, I give up.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Florida St @ Duke -13.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network

I have to keep rolling with the Duke first half freight train, especially in a matchup like this one. Florida State has a lot of size, length, and athleticism on this roster that’s the nation’s 4th-tallest, but what they don’t have is shooters. The Seminoles are forced to play through the post and will run into the country’s 4th-best two-point percentage defense tonight.

Duke can add elite rim protection to its resume for arguably the country’s best team, and they should shut down an FSU offense that has not shown up in conference road games. The Noles are just 205th in first half scoring and will have to contend with a Blue Devils squad with a plus-13.7 average first half margin at Cameron Indoor. With the way Duke is shooting from deep right now they can overwhelm anyone, and I see another early beatdown as they continue to roll over the ACC.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) CS Fullerton @ UC San Diego -26.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I hope the committee is staying up late to watch this one and witnessing just how dominant UC San Diego is. I’d suggest doing the same because the Tritons are up to 35th in KenPom and deserving of an at-large bid if things go awry in the Big West tournament. They can only play who’s on their schedule though, so they need statement victories that turn heads. Running out Fullerton again would do that, and I think they will.

The first meeting saw UCSD go on the road and roll by 39 points, so back home where the Tritons are 10-3 ATS this season shouldn’t create this steep a drop-off. Fullerton is just in an impossible spot here as they can’t score and can’t guard the three, two things that will get you buried in a hurry against anyone. With Fullerton ranked 358th in effective field goal rate and the country’s absolute worst three-point shooting team, it’s no wonder they’ve lost their last 4 conference road games by 27.8 points on average. A motivated Tritons squad with no wiggle room for letdowns given the committee’s history should roll by 30 here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +65.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.