Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 02/28

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/Utah Jazz First Half Over 125.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ

After watching these teams combine for 139 in the first half the other night, there’s no way I can’t run it back at least to some extent. I have my reservations about it because these back-to-back matchups with a day off in between often get weird, but these two teams should be fairly easy to predict. Neither wants to win, and by extension neither wants to play any defense. It’s a race to see who can allow the most points in an effort to tank, and neither the Hornets or Jazz were any good defensively before tanking season began in earnest. This should be another pickup game, and I’ll expect another fast start from both squads.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Queens/Central Arkansas Over 164 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+

It’s a day of massive games across college basketball, with elite matchups all day long, so let’s start with a game that’s way off the beaten path. These are two of the ASUN schools whose games can go wild at any moment, and putting them on the same floor should produce fireworks. It already has once, as the first meeting between these teams saw 190 points thanks to no defense from either side.

This should be another of those games, with plenty of three’s flying and neither defense doing much to stop it. Queens ranks 336th and Central Arkansas 292nd in three-point percentage defense, so a game of high three point volume will generate points. The hope is that Queens is able to drive pace on the road with their up-tempo style, and if they can, a repeat of the first matchup is a definite possibility.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Colgate @ Navy -6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Ok, two games off the beaten path, sorry but I just can’t help myself. This is a surprisingly short number to be able to back Navy, and even though it’s a Colgate team that’s typically the class of the Patriot League, this is Navy’s year. Colgate is down this season, while Navy continues to blow expectations out of the water, pun intended. The Midshipmen have dominated the conference slate with a 16-1 straight up record that includes a 14-2-1 ATS mark. They did need OT to beat Colgate on the road, but their dominance at home and elite shooting defense will slow the Raiders down here, pulling away for another strong win and cover.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Duquesne @ St Louis -14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

At least this game features a ranked team, we’re getting warmer. That ranked team might have some publicity, but they’re still on some thin ice when it comes to the tournament after two losses in their past three games. St Louis cannot afford slipups, as the A-10 looks like a one bid league in a down year, so there’s a real possibility they could get left out of the dance if they don’t make statements in their remaining games.

They should be able to make one here, and should be looking to do so. Duquesne will not be able to slow them down if the Billikens have their foot on the gas all game, especially with some positive regression coming for the country’s second-best three-point shooting team. St Louis is 12-5 ATS at home this season for a reason, they actively look to blow you out by running all game, and this high motivation spot should be no different.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Arkansas/Florida Over 170.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN

Finally, a ranked-on-ranked game that you can find on your TV. This one will be worth watching too, as a couple of teams that should be playing deep into March square off. The market loves points in this one and so do I, even with Florida really flexing their defense in recent games. It’s the SEC though, so points are coming when two premier programs face off, and the pace is going to be dialed to the max in this one.

Arkansas wants to run all game, and that will be the best way to keep Florida’s massive frontcourt that’s elite defensively from getting set. Florida has no problem with an up-tempo game, and loves to score in transition themselves. But what the Gators should have an easy time with here is flexing their muscle down low, using their size to bully a smaller Razorbacks team for easy buckets. Lots of easy 2’s will compensate for two teams that don’t rely much on the three-ball, piling up easy points and sending this over the big total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-13 (-1.34 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.