Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 02/27

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Miami-OH/Western Michigan Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I love that we get this Miami offense in a standalone national TV spot tonight, and I would expect the Redhawks to show out. After a poor second half of their last game, they should be motivated and in a bounce back spot, plus they’re facing an opponent with no hope of slowing them down. Miami’s elite shooting is going to be a big problem for Western Michigan here, as the Broncos are 304th in effective field goal defense and 327th in adjusted defensive efficiency overall.

Miami also pushes pace at one of the faster rates in the country, and WMU is allowing the 24th-shortest possession length defensively, so lots of points will pile up quickly for the visitors here. Western is fairly competent from three though, and the Miami defense has been a little leaky on the perimeter the past couple weeks. So WMU should be able to put up some points in response to getting blown off their home floor, sending this game over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+110; Odds via Caesars)

Yale (-190) @ Cornell: 5:00 PM CT on ESPNU

This is a great matchup for Yale, and I don’t foresee them tripping up on their march to another Ivy League crown here. The Bulldogs are just too good offensively, with top-25 numbers on that side of the floor including the second-best three-point percentage in the country. That won’t come into play as much tonight though as Cornell is a total sieve on the interior, ranking 343rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 344th in effective field goal defense.

Yale rode easy buckets to a blowout win in the first meeting, one of five times Cornell has had triple digits put on them this season. Big Red loves to shoot three’s and can be a high-variance squad, but they’ve been cold lately and that makes them very vulnerable with this awful defense, so I see Yale taking advantage tonight.

Coastal Carolina @ James Madison (-260): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

James Madison is really heating up at the right time, looking like a threat in the Sun Belt tournament coming up. It’s all coaching, as Preston Spradlin is elite at pressing the right buttons, he just needed a good chunk of the season to learn which ones work for this team. The Dukes are learning how to win close games, which they might need to do again tonight, but they’ve already taken down this Coastal team recently.

That was just last week, on the road for JMU, a game where they flipped Coastal’s defensive strength down low into a weakness. With the Chanticleers not really able to produce offensively at 304th in adjusted efficiency this season, I don’t see this long road trip to a hostile environment working out for them. JMU’s coaching and offensive advantages here should carry them, and while I won’t lay the 5.5 points here, I will count on the Dukes to close this parlay with a win.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Michigan/Illinois Over 157.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

This total is on the move upwards, as the market is agreeing with the metrics sites that say this should be a game in the 160’s tonight. It should be a great one, and there is plenty at stake, but I tend to agree that offense is going to be the story. Both of these teams are just too good on that end of the court, with Illinois now leading the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and Michigan sitting 5th themselves.

The Illini have a unique ability to pull Michigan’s massive frontcourt out and shoot over the top of them, things that should create the kind of game where points come in bunches. Michigan should be able to answer with a highly efficient night, as Illinois forces the fewest turnovers in the country so the Wolverines will get all the chances they need. If Illinois allows Michigan to set a faster pace here, this game should be an efficiency-based over that clears this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-12 (+0.91 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.