Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/26

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/Detroit Pistons Over 225.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

This total is creeping up because it’s easy to recognize how well Detroit is playing lately, particularly on offense. The Pistons are now averaging 123.7 PPG over their past 12 games as they’ve finally put things together on that end of the floor. It will get more difficult tonight against a good Boston defense, but Detroit has already had success against the Celtics this season. While they’ve never beaten Boston, the three meetings have averaged 238.0 points, and I’m expecting more of the same here.

The Celtics come in on a back-to-back and are shorthanded, so a Pistons offense that’s playing with more tempo lately should have an advantage there. But we’re also seeing Boston start to play like they mean it again and ramp things up as they head towards defending their title. If they flex their muscles like they have in the other meetings with the Pistons, we’ll see plenty of points from them and in this game overall.

NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder -5.5 First Quarter @ Brooklyn Nets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on YES

I simply have to play the narrative here and expect the Thunder to be out for blood. It’s never good to be on the wrong end of making history, which is exactly where OKC found themselves after letting the Wolves come back on Monday night. So it’s easy to think they’ll be looking to take it out on someone, and a very weak, shorthanded opponent in Brooklyn should be perfect. The Nets are missing several starters for tonight’s game, players they had when they visited OKC over a month ago and found themselves down 20 after a quarter. So this just shapes up as a bludgeoning by an angry Thunder squad that leads the NBA in first quarter margin on the road.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings First Half Team Total Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

I’d like to bet the over in this game with how Sacramento has been playing since the trade deadline, but I don’t think Utah is healthy enough to contribute what’s needed. I’m also worried that a potential blowout could lead to the Kings slowing down late and jeopardizing the full game team total.

So, it seems smart to isolate when their excellent offense will be fully engaged, and that should be the first half tonight. The Jazz being so shorthanded also impacts their defense, which is already the worst in the league from an efficiency standpoint. They just played shorthanded against Portland on Monday and let a weak Blazers offense drop 61 before halftime, so this high-powered and up-tempo Kings offense should have no problem eclipsing that.

The Kings have swept the season series so far, averaging 62.0 first half points in the three meetings. But it’s been over two months since these teams faced off and Sacramento has gotten more aggressive offensively since then, so look for them to put a big number on this thin Jazz roster.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Dakota Team Total Over 80.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

I’ve watched enough of this NDSU team to know that they can’t stop much of anything, especially teams who are aggressive at getting to the hoop. There aren’t many teams in the country more adept at that than South Dakota, who plays with insane tempo and barely even attempts to score from outside. The Coyotes want to get out in transition, get to the rim, and get to the line, all things that I’ve seen the Bison struggle to contain.

This is also a revenge game for USD who had 103 points put on them in their own building by NDSU in the first meeting, so they’ll be motivated here. As we near the end of a wild season for this conference, there’s no sense in counting on defense now, so look for the Coyotes to put up plenty of points tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Drake/Evansville Under 123.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

And now for something completely different from Summit League insanity, as Drake comes into this game with the country’s slowest adjusted tempo. The Bulldogs are built on defense and grinding games to a crawl, which has definitely worked for them and should again tonight. Evansville really can’t score, ranked 313th in adjusted offensive efficiency and preferring to rely on defense themselves, plus they don’t push tempo either so this game will have minimal possessions. These teams only got to 103 points in the first meeting, and Drake’s last game stayed under this total despite going to OT, so this is a situation of when Vegas goes low, I go lower.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Villanova First Half Team Total Over 32.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on FS1

Villanova’s blowout win over Marquette last Friday shows the potential of this team, and the fact that they’re fighting for their NCAA bubble lives highlights the frustrations around the program. If they’re going to have any chance at a ticket to the dance, they need to put it on teams where they can and that opportunity exists tonight.

I think they have an excellent matchup edge over Seton Hall here that should result in plenty of early points. Seton Hall gets throttled by Big East opponents early in games like it’s their job, once again allowing another bubble team in Xavier to hang 40 in the first half on Sunday. Nova has already put 37 on the Pirates before halftime of the first meeting, and should get over this number thanks to three-point shooting.

The Wildcats are the country’s second-best three-point shooting team, facing a Seton Hall defense that’s 302nd in three-point percentage allowed and is giving up a ton of production from the perimeter. If those shots are dropping and Seton Hall continues their trend of ugly starts, Villanova will have a big number on the board by halftime.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St John’s/Butler First Half Over 71 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I’ve been targeting Butler first halves since their offense got back on track in the middle of January, which was shortly after they were locked down by this St John’s team. Since that game, Butler has really taken off in the scoring department and it’s reflected early in games more than overall.

In the 12 games since last seeing the Red Storm, the first halves for Butler have averaged 75.3 points and are 9-3 over this total. That’s why this is a higher number, and why the totals in this game have been creeping up past the metrics site projections despite St John’s having the country’s second-best defense.

Their one weakness is three-point defense though, and Butler is an excellent three-point shooting team that has really upped their volume lately. Butler’s biggest weakness might be the biggest key here though, as they’re an awful interior defense and St John’s lives inside the arc, so a lot of easy points should be coming for the Red Storm. With St John’s also ramping up scoring lately as they look to make statements for their seeding, plenty of points should be coming early in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +73.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.