Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 02/25

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets -1.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

This is a really tough spot for Boston to be walking into, for a few reasons, and I think it bites them early tonight. It’s never easy to play in Denver, but it’s especially tough when you walk into Ball Arena for the second leg of a back-to-back. That’s what the Celtics are facing here after winning in Phoenix last night, and adding injury to insult is the knee problem Jaylen Brown is dealing with. I’d be skeptical of him playing, but it might not matter for Denver here, as they should be highly motivated tonight.

After two ugly losses in three games since the All-Star break, this return home should be a big boost for them, especially holding a big rest advantage over the Celtics. Thanks to situations like this Denver continues to be an excellent first quarter team at home, and with them looking to bounce back against a disadvantaged opponent, I think they take a solid lead after a quarter tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St John’s +5.5 @ UConn (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock

We’re a long ways from the St John’s team that lost at home to Providence and was 9-5 on the season. The nation’s second-longest active winning streak later, and the Red Storm are looking like the team that was supposed to make a deep March run. It’s true, these 13 straight wins have come against a down Big East, but also going 9-4 ATS in that stretch with some dominant wins – including against UConn – is still impressive.

That UConn team keeps playing with fire, finally getting burned against Creighton last week, and just doesn’t have the same deadliness we’re accustomed to. The Huskies are obviously out for revenge here, and they might very well get it, but I’ll take the hook on the key number of 5 with arguably the country’s hottest team.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Ohio State/Iowa Under 142.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

I’m pretty surprised to see an Iowa home game with a total this high. This number is tied for the highest total they’ve had in a conference home game this season, which came against Purdue who has a far more dangerous offense. Ohio State has had some high-scoring games this season, and can put up points when the situation requires it, but they don’t push tempo enough for me to see the kind of game unfold that reaches this total.

The Buckeyes are happy playing slower, and do a good job of stretching out defensive possessions, and that plays right into Iowa’s hand. The Hawkeyes are going to bring their glacial pace of 350th in adjusted tempo into this game, plus an elite defense that will be looking to bounce back after giving up a lot of points in Wisconsin this weekend. These teams are tied in the Big10 standings, and this game has a lot of conference and NCAA tournament implications, so I see a defensive battle playing out tonight.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Texas A&M/Arkansas Over 170.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

If you don’t feel comfortable with this high of a total, I get it, but I’m taking the over here. The main reason is pace, as both of these teams are top-20 in the country for shortest offensive possession length, and will run at every chance they get. That’s a little more complicated for Arkansas with how shorthanded they are, but I don’t think they’ll have the luxury of changing their style tonight. A&M coach Bucky McMillan is ruthless and will look to tire out the thin Razorback rotation with a ton of tempo and a barrage of three’s. With these being two elite shooting teams, the amount of possessions I expect in this game should lead to a ton of points in what’s quickly becoming your typical SEC game.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 22-27 (+0.48 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.