Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/25

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 First Quarter @ Orlando Magic (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

The Cavs refuse to cool off, and they’re always hot early in games, which I think will be the case again here. Cleveland has reeled off 11 wins in their past 12 games, and in each of those 11 wins they’ve held at least a 2-point lead after the first quarter. That’s what you get with the team that has the league’s best average first quarter margin, and they can impose their will early again tonight.

Orlando has a negative average first quarter margin, primarily due to their issues scoring early points as the Magic are 26th in first quarter scoring. They’ve already experienced Cleveland’s first quarter dominance this season, trailing by 18 after a quarter in the previous game that only finished with an 11-point margin. I see the Cavs getting out early in primetime tonight, and this short of a number should be no problem for them.

NBA (1 Unit) Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

From one dominant first quarter team to another, I think Memphis has another strong start against this struggling Suns squad. Just like Cleveland, the Grizzlies get on top of teams early, scoring the most first quarter points in the league and ranking 4th in average margin. While Phoenix is not terrible when it comes to first quarters, you can’t possibly like where this team is at in general right now.

With only 3 wins in their past 12 games and plenty of internal strife, the Suns are in a bad place and ripe for getting run out by good teams like Memphis. And we’ve already seen incredible consistency when these teams have met previously this season, as the Grizzlies led 36-26 after the first quarter of both games. And those were road games for the Grizz, so being back at home where their first quarter offense is the best in the NBA should see them cover this number with ease.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Suns/Grizzlies First Quarter Over 61 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

That consistency of the same exact score in the first quarter of the previous meetings is drawing me in on this play. I like it a little bit less than the Grizzlies getting to cover town early tonight, but the thing with Memphis is they also give up a ton of early points. Especially at home, as the Grizzlies are 26th in first quarter defense in home games, allowing 30.1 points on average. The Suns might be imploding but they still have scorers, so look for this to be an early shootout as well.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Charlotte Hornets @ Golden State Warriors -10 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-BA

This is a full fade of the Hornets, who have done nothing but collapse since their shocking second-half comeback in LA last week. Charlotte has been ripped to shreds by good, average, and below-average competition in the three games since, and it has started early. They trailed at halftime by 8 at Denver, 33 at Portland (!!), and 20 at Sacramento last night. Now they’re on no rest, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and facing a Warriors team that’s been waiting for them. It sure looks to me like the Warriors have figured out how to play with Jimmy Butler, and I think they look to prove it against the league’s worst team for first half margin.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Duke -13.5 First Half @ Miami (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

This is bound to be a bloodbath, and I think it starts early like most Duke games have recently as the Blue Devils are up to 2nd in average first half margin. We need to accept that this Duke team is really good, and with top overall seed aspirations for next month they need to keep making statements. Shredding Illinois at MSG over the weekend was easy work, and even the shorthanded Illini are better than this Miami team, so another national TV spot is a great place to show out.

The Canes are playing out the string and should take another beating laying down here. Miami is just 285th in average first half margin thanks to ranking 321st in first half points allowed, so this red-hot Duke offense should cruise. I think the Canes get buried under a wave of three’s, as they’re the country’s 3rd-worst three-point percentage defense. With how well Duke has been shooting, especially from deep, a repeat of the first meeting where the Devils led by 24 at half is not out of the question, and is probably their goal.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa St/Oklahoma St First Half Over 70.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I continue to worry about the defense for my Cyclones away from Hilton, but in this case I’m going to try to capitalize on it. Iowa State is still allowing 35.1 first half points in road games, not what you’d expect from a top-10 defense in the country, and it could bite them again here. Oklahoma State isn’t totally incompetent offensively on their home court, especially if they get a favorable home whistle since they’re so good at getting to the line.

They also focus on getting the ball inside which has been a bit of an issue for the ISU defense lately, so the Cowboys should get theirs tonight. But OSU can’t stop anything either, especially down low where the Clones offense has been deadly all season. The Pokes also can’t guard without fouling, ranked 321st in fouls per possession, so the usual ISU parade to the stripe should continue here. OK State conference home games are averaging 72.6 first half points, so look for this to be another high-scoring start behind surprisingly fast tempo.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Carolina @ Missouri -12.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

This is a game where mean reversion is coming for both squads, and in opposite directions. South Carolina finally got an SEC win, shocking Texas over the weekend, but that makes this a significant letdown spot for them. The Gamecocks have been awful on the road this season, just 2-8 ATS overall and suffering beatdowns by much bigger margins than this when visiting the upper-tier SEC teams.

Missouri meanwhile is looking for a bounce back after losing at a hungry Arkansas team on Saturday in a classic letdown spot of their own. Returning home should benefit the Tigers as they’ve run out the lower-tier SEC teams that have visited Columbia, and have a plus-12.3 average margin in conference home games. Mizzou is such an elite offense with excellent shooting, they should have no problem pulling away from a Gamecocks team that usually leaves their shooting at home.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Gonzaga/Santa Clara First Half Over 77 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on CBSSN

These two teams have no problem getting up and down the floor at an insane tempo, and I think that leads to another high-scoring start for them. The first meeting of these teams saw 89 points at halftime behind a fast pace and excellent shooting, and there’s no reason that can’t be repeated tonight. Santa Clara is going to fire away from deep, and they shoot three’s at an elite level in their own building.

Gonzaga will counter with easy two’s, as they’re one of the best interior and transition offenses in the country. The Zags are also an incredible scoring team early in games, ranking 2nd in first half scoring and actually scoring more in road games than at home. They also need to make statements as they find themselves in the unusual spot of being on the bubble for next month, so that should mean an aggressive approach and high-scoring start tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +71.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.