Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 02/24

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Portland Trail Blazers Over 234.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on Peacock

There have been plenty of ups and downs for the Wolves this season, much more inconsistency than I’d like to see, but they have been doing a good job of bouncing back recently. The Wolves have had more than their share of embarrassing losses like they did on Sunday, and typically rebound with an excellent offensive showing. If they want to run it up on Portland they certainly can, as the Blazers defense has been rough lately, allowing 133 to the Wolves entering the break and 157 to Denver on Friday.

Minnesota might find themselves in a similar mindset to the Nuggets, looking to get right in this game, so I’d expect them to be the main drivers of getting over this total. With the Wolves 18-9 to the over on the road with by far the best plus/minus to the total, and Portland with the 3rd-best over record at home, I see this total as easily reachable tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Chicago Bulls First Quarter Over 56.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on CHSN

The Hornets have been a great under bet for weeks now, at least in certain situations. It’s actually pretty easy to carve out the specific situations where they flip and become a good over team, which I see happening early in this game. The Hornets have been a much higher-scoring and faster-paced team early in games lately, and facing a tanking Bulls team should help further that tonight. Chicago wants to play fast and put in zero defensive effort, which the Hornets will gladly take advantage of. The first quarters of all three meetings this season have cleared 60 points, and with Miles Bridges back tonight, look for Charlotte to run it up early and clear this total in the process.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St Louis/Dayton Over 156.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The spread in this game feels trappy and is on the way down, suggesting to me that Dayton will be competitive in this revenge spot. It’s a tough task to take down St Louis, who already beat the Flyers by 31 points a few weeks ago, piling up 173 total points. These teams are perfectly capable of repeating that kind of high-scoring affair thanks to a couple of key angles.

St Louis is always a candidate for a high-scoring affair since they push tempo at one of the highest rates in the country and can shoot the lights out, especially from deep where they have the best percentage in the country. That gives them a big advantage over Dayton who is 315th in three-point percentage allowed. The Flyers will get points a different way though, at the free throw line as they’re the 5th-most reliant on the charity stripe nationally. SLU is pretty foul prone, and a home whistle will help keep the easy points coming, so I think this has a great chance to get over a total that hasn’t adjusted much from the prior meeting.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Duke/Notre Dame Under 140.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

This game reeks of a let-down spot for Duke after their massive win over Michigan this weekend vaulted them into the top spot in the AP poll. Now they have an annoying travel spot to South Bend to take on a weak Notre Dame squad before a big home game coming up on Saturday. That’s the recipe for a sleepy spot, and as good as Duke might be, nobody is fully immune to those.

I think that’s most likely to impact them offensively, since their defense is too good and Notre Dame’s weak, slow-paced offense isn’t really a threat to them. The Irish have been held in the 60’s by every opponent with a solid defense, and now they take on the second-best team by adjusted defensive efficiency in the country. This game profiles very similarly to Duke’s visits to Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech, and Pitt, all of which stayed well under this total, so I expect a low-scoring affair tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa State/Utah Over 144 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on FS1

I’m obligated to watch my Cyclones in this game since it’s nationally televised and only kind of interferes with the Wolves game. But it has not been pretty for ISU when they go on the road, at least against teams with a pulse, so I’m a little concerned about how they’ll look here. So are the books, who have a very low total set here thanks to ISU’s offensive struggles away from Hilton, and Utah’s weak offense everywhere they play.

But the Utes should have no chance to slow down the Clones if they want to get out in transition, which I expect in a bounce back effort. Meanwhile, ISU’s over-rotating defense should give Utah’s semi-decent shooters looks from deep to contribute some points here. But generally speaking this sets up as a blowout over, and since I’m not laying a big number on the road with my Clones, I’ll expect plenty of points instead.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 20-26 (-0.87 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.