Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) San Antonio Spurs Team Total Under 115.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock
I’m looking to fade a Spurs offense that has cleared this total in 7 straight games, and eclipsed the 120-point threshold in 6 straight, so there might be something wrong with me. Or, I’m just that impressed with Detroit’s defense, and expecting San Antonio to do more of the same against this level of competition. The Pistons might very well be the best defensive team in the league, ranking second overall in defensive efficiency and first in home games.
The Spurs haven’t been that impressive in road games against top-tier defenses, averaging just 110 PPG when visiting teams in the top half of defensive efficiency rankings. The Pistons also seem to clamp down more against Western Conference teams, only allowing 106 PPG to those opponents this season. Detroit is just too good on that end lately, allowing 103.4 PPG in their past 20 games, and despite how scary the Spurs can be, I’ll trust the Pistons to slow them down here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Utah Jazz/Houston Rockets First Half Over 109.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:30 PM CT on Peacock
A lot of things would theoretically point to Houston coming out on fire to start this game, but I don’t think it’s that simple. The Rockets are off an epic collapse in New York, and have been one of the league’s better first half home teams, so it’s easy to assume that they’ll run out the lowly Jazz from the jump tonight.
But Utah isn’t terrible, they just try to be terrible when it counts and actually put up good fights early in games before selling late. I don’t think Houston will have any trouble scoring in a high motivation spot against the weak defense and up-tempo style of the Jazz though, so that raises their scoring floor significantly. If Utah hangs in at all, this fairly low total that they easily cleared in both previous meetings is well within reach tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Houston/Kansas Under 139 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
The metrics sites do not agree with the line movement pushing this total higher, and I don’t either. This is an interesting situational spot where both teams are in desperate need of a bounce back, and I think that fuels effort on the defensive side of the floor. Kansas took what is actually a historic loss for them on Saturday, likely getting caught looking ahead to this one which is a revenge game from last season.
The Jayhawks could not shoot in that game, and I don’t see those shooting woes getting fixed in this short amount of time before facing an elite defense like Houston’s. I think defense is going to be preached hard tonight for the Cougars, who are on only their third losing streak of the past nine seasons after dropping their second game in a row on Saturday. This does not project as an up-tempo affair at all, so with two elite shooting defenses squaring off in a high-leverage spot, look for minimal scoring tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-28 (-3.10 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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